Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOpenAI 24%
SpaceXAI 24%
Baidu 22%
Z.ai 22%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
24%
SpaceXAI
24%
Baidu
22%
Z.ai
22%
Tencent
20%
Amazon
20%
Anthropic
19%
ByteDance
18%
Moonshot
18%
DeepSeek
17%
Mistral
17%
15%
Thinky
14%
Meituan
14%
Xiaomi
13%
Microsoft
12%
Meta
11%
StepFun
11%
Nvidia
9%
Alibaba
7%
MiniMax
7%
OpenAI 24%
SpaceXAI 24%
Baidu 22%
Z.ai 22%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$36 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$36 Vol.
24%
Baidu
$36 Vol.
22%
Z.ai
$36 Vol.
22%
Tencent
$36 Vol.
20%
Amazon
$36 Vol.
20%
Anthropic
$36 Vol.
19%
ByteDance
$36 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$36 Vol.
18%
DeepSeek
$36 Vol.
17%
Mistral
$36 Vol.
17%
$36 Vol.
15%
Thinky
$36 Vol.
14%
Meituan
$36 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$36 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$36 Vol.
12%
Meta
$36 Vol.
11%
StepFun
$36 Vol.
11%
Nvidia
$36 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$36 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$36 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$765Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$765Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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