The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several mid-tier and emerging AI labs, alongside lower odds for established players like Google at 28% and OpenAI at 25%, reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place by late November. Recent model releases, benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and strategic partnerships have kept smaller labs competitive against giants, while regulatory scrutiny and talent shifts add volatility. Traders are watching developer ecosystem growth, safety evaluations, and compute scaling announcements as key swing factors that could reorder rankings before the resolution date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMiniMax 45%
Anthropic 43%
SpaceXAI 23%
Nvidia 23%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
45%
Anthropic
43%
SpaceXAI
23%
Nvidia
23%
Meituan
18%
OpenAI
17%
Amazon
16%
16%
StepFun
15%
Alibaba
15%
ByteDance
14%
Microsoft
14%
Moonshot
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Baidu
13%
Thinky
13%
Meta
12%
Mistral
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Tencent
10%
Z.ai
9%
MiniMax 45%
Anthropic 43%
SpaceXAI 23%
Nvidia 23%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
45%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
23%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
18%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
17%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
16%
$0 Vol.
16%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
15%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
13%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
13%
Meta
$0 Vol.
12%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
11%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
10%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several mid-tier and emerging AI labs, alongside lower odds for established players like Google at 28% and OpenAI at 25%, reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place by late November. Recent model releases, benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and strategic partnerships have kept smaller labs competitive against giants, while regulatory scrutiny and talent shifts add volatility. Traders are watching developer ecosystem growth, safety evaluations, and compute scaling announcements as key swing factors that could reorder rankings before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several mid-tier and emerging AI labs, alongside lower odds for established players like Google at 28% and OpenAI at 25%, reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place by late November. Recent model releases, benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and strategic partnerships have kept smaller labs competitive against giants, while regulatory scrutiny and talent shifts add volatility. Traders are watching developer ecosystem growth, safety evaluations, and compute scaling announcements as key swing factors that could reorder rankings before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several mid-tier and emerging AI labs, alongside lower odds for established players like Google at 28% and OpenAI at 25%, reflect intense uncertainty in the race for third place by late November. Recent model releases, benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and strategic partnerships have kept smaller labs competitive against giants, while regulatory scrutiny and talent shifts add volatility. Traders are watching developer ecosystem growth, safety evaluations, and compute scaling announcements as key swing factors that could reorder rankings before the resolution date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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