Recent July 2026 model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered near 50% for Google, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Meta, and several Chinese contenders. Anthropic’s rapid rollout of Claude Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Fable 5, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok 4.5, has narrowed capability gaps in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates contrast with ongoing delays to its stronger Pro variant, while Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek leverage domestic hardware and multilingual benchmarks to challenge Western leaders. Traders view the third-place outcome as highly sensitive to August-September benchmark results, enterprise adoption metrics, and any further regulatory or supply-chain developments that could shift relative positioning before the September resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 39%
Alibaba 38%
OpenAI 38%
Anthropic 37%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
39%
Alibaba
38%
OpenAI
38%
Anthropic
37%
Moonshot
37%
Xiaomi
37%
Amazon
37%
ByteDance
37%
Nvidia
37%
Meta
37%
Z.ai
37%
SpaceXAI
37%
DeepSeek
37%
Baidu
36%
Thinky
23%
MiniMax
23%
Mistral
23%
Meituan
23%
Tencent
23%
StepFun
23%
Microsoft
23%
Google 39%
Alibaba 38%
OpenAI 38%
Anthropic 37%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
39%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
38%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
37%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
37%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
37%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
37%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
37%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
37%
Meta
$0 Vol.
37%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
37%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
37%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
37%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
36%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
23%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
23%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
23%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent July 2026 model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered near 50% for Google, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Meta, and several Chinese contenders. Anthropic’s rapid rollout of Claude Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Fable 5, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok 4.5, has narrowed capability gaps in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates contrast with ongoing delays to its stronger Pro variant, while Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek leverage domestic hardware and multilingual benchmarks to challenge Western leaders. Traders view the third-place outcome as highly sensitive to August-September benchmark results, enterprise adoption metrics, and any further regulatory or supply-chain developments that could shift relative positioning before the September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent July 2026 model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered near 50% for Google, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Meta, and several Chinese contenders. Anthropic’s rapid rollout of Claude Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Fable 5, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok 4.5, has narrowed capability gaps in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates contrast with ongoing delays to its stronger Pro variant, while Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek leverage domestic hardware and multilingual benchmarks to challenge Western leaders. Traders view the third-place outcome as highly sensitive to August-September benchmark results, enterprise adoption metrics, and any further regulatory or supply-chain developments that could shift relative positioning before the September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 model releases have intensified competition among leading AI labs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered near 50% for Google, Alibaba, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Meta, and several Chinese contenders. Anthropic’s rapid rollout of Claude Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Fable 5, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s Grok 4.5, has narrowed capability gaps in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Google’s Gemini 3.6 Flash updates contrast with ongoing delays to its stronger Pro variant, while Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek leverage domestic hardware and multilingual benchmarks to challenge Western leaders. Traders view the third-place outcome as highly sensitive to August-September benchmark results, enterprise adoption metrics, and any further regulatory or supply-chain developments that could shift relative positioning before the September resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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