Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5 in late July 2026 and Claude Fable 5 in June have driven the 76% market-implied probability for the company, as these models lead independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and agentic evaluations. Traders see sustained competitive positioning through October due to Anthropic's edge in long-horizon reasoning and production coding over close rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Google's Gemini variants, which trail on raw capability metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus accounts for typical release timelines while recognizing that new frontier drops or benchmark shifts could alter outcomes before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 82%
Google 16%
Mistral 13%
OpenAI 12%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
16%
Mistral
13%
OpenAI
12%
DeepSeek
12%
Amazon
12%
Nvidia
12%
Meituan
12%
Microsoft
11%
Thinky
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
9%
Alibaba
7%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Anthropic 82%
Google 16%
Mistral 13%
OpenAI 12%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$122 Vol.
76%
$104 Vol.
16%
Mistral
$104 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$109 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$104 Vol.
12%
Amazon
$104 Vol.
12%
Nvidia
$104 Vol.
12%
Meituan
$125 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$150 Vol.
11%
Thinky
$104 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$167 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$147 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$95 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$127 Vol.
2%
Meta
$147 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$137 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$137 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$137 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$137 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$137 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5 in late July 2026 and Claude Fable 5 in June have driven the 76% market-implied probability for the company, as these models lead independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and agentic evaluations. Traders see sustained competitive positioning through October due to Anthropic's edge in long-horizon reasoning and production coding over close rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Google's Gemini variants, which trail on raw capability metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus accounts for typical release timelines while recognizing that new frontier drops or benchmark shifts could alter outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,658Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5 in late July 2026 and Claude Fable 5 in June have driven the 76% market-implied probability for the company, as these models lead independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and agentic evaluations. Traders see sustained competitive positioning through October due to Anthropic's edge in long-horizon reasoning and production coding over close rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Google's Gemini variants, which trail on raw capability metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus accounts for typical release timelines while recognizing that new frontier drops or benchmark shifts could alter outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,658Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 5 in late July 2026 and Claude Fable 5 in June have driven the 76% market-implied probability for the company, as these models lead independent benchmarks including Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index at 63, SWE-Bench coding tasks, and agentic evaluations. Traders see sustained competitive positioning through October due to Anthropic's edge in long-horizon reasoning and production coding over close rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Google's Gemini variants, which trail on raw capability metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus accounts for typical release timelines while recognizing that new frontier drops or benchmark shifts could alter outcomes before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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