Anthropic holds the edge in trader sentiment for the top AI model by late October, with its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants posting the strongest composite scores across benchmarks like BenchAlign and GPQA as of mid-August 2026. Recent releases of advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities have widened the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, though the latter remains competitive on coding and multimodal tasks. Multiple labs at roughly even implied odds reflect the narrow margins typical in frontier model races, where small benchmark gains or new releases can shift positions quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential September updates from Google, Meta, or xAI that could alter the leaderboard before the October resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 62%
Xiaomi 30.3%
Microsoft 16.6%
Meituan 14.9%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
58%
Xiaomi
30%
Microsoft
17%
Meituan
15%
Meta
14%
OpenAI
13%
DeepSeek
13%
12%
Moonshot
11%
SpaceXAI
8%
Alibaba
7%
MiniMax
6%
StepFun
5%
ByteDance
4%
Z.ai
4%
Mistral
3%
Nvidia
11%
Tencent
12%
Baidu
1%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
18%
Anthropic 62%
Xiaomi 30.3%
Microsoft 16.6%
Meituan 14.9%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$77 Vol.
58%
Xiaomi
$112 Vol.
30%
Microsoft
$108 Vol.
17%
Meituan
$110 Vol.
15%
Meta
$39 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
13%
$39 Vol.
12%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
7%
MiniMax
$79 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$93 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$47 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$112 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$106 Vol.
11%
Tencent
$110 Vol.
12%
Baidu
$54 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$110 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$106 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the edge in trader sentiment for the top AI model by late October, with its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants posting the strongest composite scores across benchmarks like BenchAlign and GPQA as of mid-August 2026. Recent releases of advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities have widened the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, though the latter remains competitive on coding and multimodal tasks. Multiple labs at roughly even implied odds reflect the narrow margins typical in frontier model races, where small benchmark gains or new releases can shift positions quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential September updates from Google, Meta, or xAI that could alter the leaderboard before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,577Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds the edge in trader sentiment for the top AI model by late October, with its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants posting the strongest composite scores across benchmarks like BenchAlign and GPQA as of mid-August 2026. Recent releases of advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities have widened the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, though the latter remains competitive on coding and multimodal tasks. Multiple labs at roughly even implied odds reflect the narrow margins typical in frontier model races, where small benchmark gains or new releases can shift positions quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential September updates from Google, Meta, or xAI that could alter the leaderboard before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,577Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the edge in trader sentiment for the top AI model by late October, with its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants posting the strongest composite scores across benchmarks like BenchAlign and GPQA as of mid-August 2026. Recent releases of advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities have widened the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, though the latter remains competitive on coding and multimodal tasks. Multiple labs at roughly even implied odds reflect the narrow margins typical in frontier model races, where small benchmark gains or new releases can shift positions quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential September updates from Google, Meta, or xAI that could alter the leaderboard before the October resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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