The tightly matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and rapid iteration across the sector, with no single player holding a decisive edge in large language model performance or user adoption as of mid-August 2026. Traders see comparable trajectories for entities like Google, Anthropic, and others due to frequent model releases, benchmark improvements, and shifting competitive positioning that keep outcomes fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could accelerate one lab's momentum before October resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores the uncertainty inherent in forecasting AI progress amid ongoing technical and market developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiStepFun 28%
Anthropic 20%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
15%
Anthropic
20%
Nvidia
18%
Z.ai
16%
Meta
15%
Alibaba
14%
Moonshot
14%
OpenAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Xiaomi
10%
ByteDance
7%
Microsoft
7%
Baidu
23%
Tencent
4%
Amazon
3%
Meituan
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
29%
32%
StepFun 28%
Anthropic 20%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
$37 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$35 Vol.
20%
Nvidia
$35 Vol.
18%
Z.ai
$35 Vol.
16%
Meta
$17 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$35 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$35 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$35 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$127 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$17 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$35 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$110 Vol.
10%
ByteDance
$97 Vol.
7%
Microsoft
$141 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$35 Vol.
23%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$42 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$24 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$63 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$95 Vol.
29%
$33 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and rapid iteration across the sector, with no single player holding a decisive edge in large language model performance or user adoption as of mid-August 2026. Traders see comparable trajectories for entities like Google, Anthropic, and others due to frequent model releases, benchmark improvements, and shifting competitive positioning that keep outcomes fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could accelerate one lab's momentum before October resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores the uncertainty inherent in forecasting AI progress amid ongoing technical and market developments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,156Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and rapid iteration across the sector, with no single player holding a decisive edge in large language model performance or user adoption as of mid-August 2026. Traders see comparable trajectories for entities like Google, Anthropic, and others due to frequent model releases, benchmark improvements, and shifting competitive positioning that keep outcomes fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could accelerate one lab's momentum before October resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores the uncertainty inherent in forecasting AI progress amid ongoing technical and market developments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,156Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense competition and rapid iteration across the sector, with no single player holding a decisive edge in large language model performance or user adoption as of mid-August 2026. Traders see comparable trajectories for entities like Google, Anthropic, and others due to frequent model releases, benchmark improvements, and shifting competitive positioning that keep outcomes fluid. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, developer ecosystem growth, and any regulatory or partnership announcements that could accelerate one lab's momentum before October resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores the uncertainty inherent in forecasting AI progress amid ongoing technical and market developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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