Traders see a tightly contested field on LiveBench Coding through late October, with no single company holding a durable edge. Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 Max Effort currently leads the June 2026 snapshot in the coding category, but OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants sit within a few points while Google, xAI, Moonshot, and Chinese labs continue rapid iteration. New model releases, benchmark refreshes, and capability jumps in agentic coding remain the dominant swing factors; any frontier lab shipping a meaningful update before the October cutoff could quickly reorder implied probabilities. The market’s low individual odds reflect this ongoing parity and the realistic chance of late surprises.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAmazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
StepFun 25%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Amazon
27%
Z.ai
27%
Anthropic
23%
StepFun
14%
OpenAI
25%
Xiaomi
14%
ByteDance
21%
SpaceXAI
26%
Meituan
20%
Meta
13%
Moonshot
24%
18%
DeepSeek
16%
Nvidia
14%
Mistral
14%
Tencent
14%
Thinky
12%
MiniMax
12%
Alibaba
12%
Baidu
12%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
StepFun 25%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Amazon
$54 Vol.
27%
Z.ai
$38 Vol.
27%
Anthropic
$46 Vol.
23%
StepFun
$38 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$13 Vol.
25%
Xiaomi
$53 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$33 Vol.
21%
SpaceXAI
$33 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$13 Vol.
20%
Meta
$33 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$33 Vol.
24%
$13 Vol.
18%
DeepSeek
$13 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$79 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$65 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$86 Vol.
12%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
12%
Baidu
$44 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tightly contested field on LiveBench Coding through late October, with no single company holding a durable edge. Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 Max Effort currently leads the June 2026 snapshot in the coding category, but OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants sit within a few points while Google, xAI, Moonshot, and Chinese labs continue rapid iteration. New model releases, benchmark refreshes, and capability jumps in agentic coding remain the dominant swing factors; any frontier lab shipping a meaningful update before the October cutoff could quickly reorder implied probabilities. The market’s low individual odds reflect this ongoing parity and the realistic chance of late surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$871Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tightly contested field on LiveBench Coding through late October, with no single company holding a durable edge. Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 Max Effort currently leads the June 2026 snapshot in the coding category, but OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants sit within a few points while Google, xAI, Moonshot, and Chinese labs continue rapid iteration. New model releases, benchmark refreshes, and capability jumps in agentic coding remain the dominant swing factors; any frontier lab shipping a meaningful update before the October cutoff could quickly reorder implied probabilities. The market’s low individual odds reflect this ongoing parity and the realistic chance of late surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$871Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested field on LiveBench Coding through late October, with no single company holding a durable edge. Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5 Max Effort currently leads the June 2026 snapshot in the coding category, but OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 variants sit within a few points while Google, xAI, Moonshot, and Chinese labs continue rapid iteration. New model releases, benchmark refreshes, and capability jumps in agentic coding remain the dominant swing factors; any frontier lab shipping a meaningful update before the October cutoff could quickly reorder implied probabilities. The market’s low individual odds reflect this ongoing parity and the realistic chance of late surprises.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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