Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 79% market-implied odds for the company holding the top AI model by month-end, as the model currently leads multiple leaderboards with composite scores around 97 and strong gains in agentic coding, reasoning, and Terminal-Bench benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release days later sits at roughly 18% odds after posting competitive but lower marks near 93-54.7 across the same evaluations. Traders appear to view the short remaining window as insufficient for rivals like Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash or Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 to close the gap before September 30, though rapid iteration cycles in frontier large language models leave room for last-minute benchmark shifts or capability demonstrations to influence the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 80%
OpenAI 18.1%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,525 Vol.
$90,525 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
80%
OpenAI
18%
Meta
2%
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 18.1%
Meta 2.1%
Google 1.7%
$90,525 Vol.
$90,525 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$39,899 Vol.
80%
OpenAI
$9,844 Vol.
18%
Meta
$7,951 Vol.
2%
$5,768 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$3,857 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,222 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,880 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 79% market-implied odds for the company holding the top AI model by month-end, as the model currently leads multiple leaderboards with composite scores around 97 and strong gains in agentic coding, reasoning, and Terminal-Bench benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release days later sits at roughly 18% odds after posting competitive but lower marks near 93-54.7 across the same evaluations. Traders appear to view the short remaining window as insufficient for rivals like Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash or Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 to close the gap before September 30, though rapid iteration cycles in frontier large language models leave room for last-minute benchmark shifts or capability demonstrations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$90,525Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 79% market-implied odds for the company holding the top AI model by month-end, as the model currently leads multiple leaderboards with composite scores around 97 and strong gains in agentic coding, reasoning, and Terminal-Bench benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release days later sits at roughly 18% odds after posting competitive but lower marks near 93-54.7 across the same evaluations. Traders appear to view the short remaining window as insufficient for rivals like Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash or Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 to close the gap before September 30, though rapid iteration cycles in frontier large language models leave room for last-minute benchmark shifts or capability demonstrations to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$90,525Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 79% market-implied odds for the company holding the top AI model by month-end, as the model currently leads multiple leaderboards with composite scores around 97 and strong gains in agentic coding, reasoning, and Terminal-Bench benchmarks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release days later sits at roughly 18% odds after posting competitive but lower marks near 93-54.7 across the same evaluations. Traders appear to view the short remaining window as insufficient for rivals like Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash or Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 to close the gap before September 30, though rapid iteration cycles in frontier large language models leave room for last-minute benchmark shifts or capability demonstrations to influence the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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