Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% market-implied probability for the top Text Arena math model by end of September, driven by its Claude family consistently leading the crowdsourced math category leaderboard with models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest Elo ratings around 1529. Recent benchmark snapshots show these models outperforming competitors on proof-based and quantitative tasks, reflecting strong trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reasoning depth and arena voter preference. OpenAI trails at 18.5% despite GPT-5 series strength on some AIME and FrontierMath metrics, while Google and others sit below 2% amid lower arena visibility. With resolution days away, any late model updates or arena vote shifts could still influence final positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 19%
Google 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$56,547 Vol.
$56,547 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
19%
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 19%
Google 1.7%
SpaceXAI <1%
$56,547 Vol.
$56,547 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,993 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$18,777 Vol.
19%
$8,002 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,433 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$469 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% market-implied probability for the top Text Arena math model by end of September, driven by its Claude family consistently leading the crowdsourced math category leaderboard with models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest Elo ratings around 1529. Recent benchmark snapshots show these models outperforming competitors on proof-based and quantitative tasks, reflecting strong trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reasoning depth and arena voter preference. OpenAI trails at 18.5% despite GPT-5 series strength on some AIME and FrontierMath metrics, while Google and others sit below 2% amid lower arena visibility. With resolution days away, any late model updates or arena vote shifts could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$56,547Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% market-implied probability for the top Text Arena math model by end of September, driven by its Claude family consistently leading the crowdsourced math category leaderboard with models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest Elo ratings around 1529. Recent benchmark snapshots show these models outperforming competitors on proof-based and quantitative tasks, reflecting strong trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reasoning depth and arena voter preference. OpenAI trails at 18.5% despite GPT-5 series strength on some AIME and FrontierMath metrics, while Google and others sit below 2% amid lower arena visibility. With resolution days away, any late model updates or arena vote shifts could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$56,547Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% market-implied probability for the top Text Arena math model by end of September, driven by its Claude family consistently leading the crowdsourced math category leaderboard with models such as Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest Elo ratings around 1529. Recent benchmark snapshots show these models outperforming competitors on proof-based and quantitative tasks, reflecting strong trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in reasoning depth and arena voter preference. OpenAI trails at 18.5% despite GPT-5 series strength on some AIME and FrontierMath metrics, while Google and others sit below 2% amid lower arena visibility. With resolution days away, any late model updates or arena vote shifts could still influence final positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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