OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui9% peluang
$94,915 Vol.
$94,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% peluang
$94,915 Vol.
$94,915 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$94,915Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$94,915Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s public roadmap continues to anchor trader sentiment, with CEO Sam Altman targeting AI research interns capable of accelerating internal work by late 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only in 2028. Recent large language model releases, including GPT-5 iterations, demonstrate stronger reasoning and coding benchmarks yet fall short of the broad, self-improving capabilities most associate with AGI. This timeline, combined with the lack of any official AGI claim through mid-2026, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against an announcement by year-end. While an unexpected scaling breakthrough or narrowed AGI definition could still shift odds, current evidence points to continued incremental progress rather than a near-term announcement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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