Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 31%
Xiaomi 24%
Z.ai 22%
OpenAI 21%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
31%
Xiaomi
24%
Z.ai
22%
OpenAI
21%
Moonshot
19%
Alibaba
18%
Baidu
18%
Meituan
18%
DeepSeek
16%
Amazon
16%
ByteDance
16%
Tencent
15%
SpaceXAI
19%
Thinky
14%
Mistral
18%
Nvidia
5%
Meta
21%
MiniMax
14%
12%
Microsoft
4%
StepFun
3%
Anthropic 31%
Xiaomi 24%
Z.ai 22%
OpenAI 21%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$138 Vol.
31%
Xiaomi
$91 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$91 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$91 Vol.
21%
Moonshot
$91 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$91 Vol.
18%
Baidu
$86 Vol.
18%
Meituan
$91 Vol.
18%
DeepSeek
$91 Vol.
16%
Amazon
$91 Vol.
16%
ByteDance
$91 Vol.
16%
Tencent
$91 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$86 Vol.
19%
Thinky
$91 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$128 Vol.
18%
Nvidia
$80 Vol.
5%
Meta
$91 Vol.
21%
MiniMax
$91 Vol.
14%
$85 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$84 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$91 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,967Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$1,967Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for leading LiveBench overall at end of September, driven by its Claude Fable 5 and Claude 5 Opus variants posting the strongest recent scores on the contamination-free benchmark, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and GPT-5.5 entries. Traders see this edge from consistent gains in reasoning, coding, and data analysis subtasks, reflecting Anthropic's focus on high-effort model scaling and safety-aligned architectures amid a tight field where multiple labs release iterative updates. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot's Kimi K3 trail closely in probability, supported by strong open-weight performance and competitive pricing that could shift rankings if September releases close capability gaps. With outcomes clustered tightly below 25% for most others, key swing factors include any late-quarter model drops or benchmark refreshes that reward demonstrated live capabilities over marketing claims.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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