Recent agent SDK releases and framework updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft have fragmented trader views on second-place positioning behind a presumed leader, with implied probabilities clustered tightly between 23% and 26% for the major labs. Enterprise adoption metrics, native integrations with cloud platforms like Azure and Google Cloud, and demonstrated tool-use benchmarks differentiate contenders, while security incidents involving agent breaches at OpenAI and Anthropic introduce downside risk. Meta’s Muse Code launch and open-weight progress from DeepSeek and Mistral add further uncertainty, leaving resolution dependent on October capability demonstrations and production deployment data rather than announcements alone.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeta 25%
SpaceXAI 24%
Moonshot 24%
DeepSeek 24%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
25%
SpaceXAI
24%
Moonshot
24%
DeepSeek
24%
Nvidia
24%
Mistral
24%
Microsoft
24%
Alibaba
24%
24%
MiniMax
24%
OpenAI
23%
Xiaomi
23%
ByteDance
23%
Baidu
23%
Amazon
23%
Anthropic
23%
Z.ai
22%
Meituan
22%
Meta 25%
SpaceXAI 24%
Moonshot 24%
DeepSeek 24%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$0 Vol.
25%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
24%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
24%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
24%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
24%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
24%
$0 Vol.
24%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
23%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
23%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
23%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
23%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
22%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent agent SDK releases and framework updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft have fragmented trader views on second-place positioning behind a presumed leader, with implied probabilities clustered tightly between 23% and 26% for the major labs. Enterprise adoption metrics, native integrations with cloud platforms like Azure and Google Cloud, and demonstrated tool-use benchmarks differentiate contenders, while security incidents involving agent breaches at OpenAI and Anthropic introduce downside risk. Meta’s Muse Code launch and open-weight progress from DeepSeek and Mistral add further uncertainty, leaving resolution dependent on October capability demonstrations and production deployment data rather than announcements alone.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent agent SDK releases and framework updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft have fragmented trader views on second-place positioning behind a presumed leader, with implied probabilities clustered tightly between 23% and 26% for the major labs. Enterprise adoption metrics, native integrations with cloud platforms like Azure and Google Cloud, and demonstrated tool-use benchmarks differentiate contenders, while security incidents involving agent breaches at OpenAI and Anthropic introduce downside risk. Meta’s Muse Code launch and open-weight progress from DeepSeek and Mistral add further uncertainty, leaving resolution dependent on October capability demonstrations and production deployment data rather than announcements alone.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent agent SDK releases and framework updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft have fragmented trader views on second-place positioning behind a presumed leader, with implied probabilities clustered tightly between 23% and 26% for the major labs. Enterprise adoption metrics, native integrations with cloud platforms like Azure and Google Cloud, and demonstrated tool-use benchmarks differentiate contenders, while security incidents involving agent breaches at OpenAI and Anthropic introduce downside risk. Meta’s Muse Code launch and open-weight progress from DeepSeek and Mistral add further uncertainty, leaving resolution dependent on October capability demonstrations and production deployment data rather than announcements alone.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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