The market's near-even odds across dozens of labs reflect a rapidly tightening frontier where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on LMSYS Arena rankings with style control enabled, which prioritizes substantive capabilities over response formatting. U.S. labs such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google continue releasing high-intelligence models like Claude Opus 5 variants and GPT iterations, yet Chinese contenders including DeepSeek, Qwen (Alibaba), Moonshot, and StepFun have narrowed benchmark gaps through efficient architectures like sparse attention and aggressive quantization. Recent shake-ups in leaderboards, ongoing model launches, and export-control pressures on compute create volatility, with traders watching release cadence, coding/reasoning benchmarks, and any late-October updates that could reorder the #3 spot before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNvidia 26%
StepFun 26%
Microsoft 26%
Google 26%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Nvidia
26%
StepFun
26%
Microsoft
26%
26%
Moonshot
26%
Alibaba
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Z.ai
26%
Baidu
26%
Xiaomi
26%
DeepSeek
26%
ByteDance
26%
MiniMax
26%
Thinky
26%
Mistral
26%
Amazon
26%
Tencent
26%
OpenAI
25%
Meituan
25%
Anthropic
23%
Meta
23%
Nvidia 26%
StepFun 26%
Microsoft 26%
Google 26%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
26%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
26%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
26%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
25%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
23%
Meta
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market's near-even odds across dozens of labs reflect a rapidly tightening frontier where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on LMSYS Arena rankings with style control enabled, which prioritizes substantive capabilities over response formatting. U.S. labs such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google continue releasing high-intelligence models like Claude Opus 5 variants and GPT iterations, yet Chinese contenders including DeepSeek, Qwen (Alibaba), Moonshot, and StepFun have narrowed benchmark gaps through efficient architectures like sparse attention and aggressive quantization. Recent shake-ups in leaderboards, ongoing model launches, and export-control pressures on compute create volatility, with traders watching release cadence, coding/reasoning benchmarks, and any late-October updates that could reorder the #3 spot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market's near-even odds across dozens of labs reflect a rapidly tightening frontier where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on LMSYS Arena rankings with style control enabled, which prioritizes substantive capabilities over response formatting. U.S. labs such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google continue releasing high-intelligence models like Claude Opus 5 variants and GPT iterations, yet Chinese contenders including DeepSeek, Qwen (Alibaba), Moonshot, and StepFun have narrowed benchmark gaps through efficient architectures like sparse attention and aggressive quantization. Recent shake-ups in leaderboards, ongoing model launches, and export-control pressures on compute create volatility, with traders watching release cadence, coding/reasoning benchmarks, and any late-October updates that could reorder the #3 spot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's near-even odds across dozens of labs reflect a rapidly tightening frontier where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on LMSYS Arena rankings with style control enabled, which prioritizes substantive capabilities over response formatting. U.S. labs such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google continue releasing high-intelligence models like Claude Opus 5 variants and GPT iterations, yet Chinese contenders including DeepSeek, Qwen (Alibaba), Moonshot, and StepFun have narrowed benchmark gaps through efficient architectures like sparse attention and aggressive quantization. Recent shake-ups in leaderboards, ongoing model launches, and export-control pressures on compute create volatility, with traders watching release cadence, coding/reasoning benchmarks, and any late-October updates that could reorder the #3 spot before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan