**Forecast models indicate a peak around 37°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability.** Morning observations show temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and low humidity around 20-35%, conditions that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or moisture to suppress rises. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and agency forecasts, project afternoon highs of 34-37°C, with some runs reaching 37°C by mid-afternoon before cooling in the evening. This places 38°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 35% odds if solar heating intensifies further, while lower probabilities for 36°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and absence of cooling influences like stronger winds or precipitation. Official verification from monitoring stations will resolve the market once the full daily maximum is recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
37°C 45%
38°C 38%
36°C 15%
35°C 4%
$51,618 Vol.
$51,618 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
15%
37°C
45%
38°C
38%
39°C
3%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 45%
38°C 38%
36°C 15%
35°C 4%
$51,618 Vol.
$51,618 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
$3,639 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,759 Vol.
1%
35°C
$5,782 Vol.
4%
36°C
$10,289 Vol.
15%
37°C
$8,164 Vol.
45%
38°C
$11,559 Vol.
38%
39°C
$5,724 Vol.
3%
40°C
$1,948 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$455 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a peak around 37°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability.**
Morning observations show temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and low humidity around 20-35%, conditions that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or moisture to suppress rises. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and agency forecasts, project afternoon highs of 34-37°C, with some runs reaching 37°C by mid-afternoon before cooling in the evening. This places 38°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 35% odds if solar heating intensifies further, while lower probabilities for 36°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and absence of cooling influences like stronger winds or precipitation. Official verification from monitoring stations will resolve the market once the full daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$51,618Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a peak around 37°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability.**
Morning observations show temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and low humidity around 20-35%, conditions that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or moisture to suppress rises. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and agency forecasts, project afternoon highs of 34-37°C, with some runs reaching 37°C by mid-afternoon before cooling in the evening. This places 38°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 35% odds if solar heating intensifies further, while lower probabilities for 36°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and absence of cooling influences like stronger winds or precipitation. Official verification from monitoring stations will resolve the market once the full daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,618Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a peak around 37°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid's highest temperature on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 47% implied probability.** Morning observations show temperatures climbing from the mid-20s°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light northeasterly winds and low humidity around 20-35%, conditions that favor strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or moisture to suppress rises. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and agency forecasts, project afternoon highs of 34-37°C, with some runs reaching 37°C by mid-afternoon before cooling in the evening. This places 38°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 35% odds if solar heating intensifies further, while lower probabilities for 36°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and absence of cooling influences like stronger winds or precipitation. Official verification from monitoring stations will resolve the market once the full daily maximum is recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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