Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, driving the market’s tight clustering around the 33 °C outcome at 33% implied probability. Afternoon convective timing and coverage remain the dominant variables, as earlier or more widespread thunderstorms could suppress insolation and enhance evaporative cooling toward 31–32 °C, while clearer intervals allow greater surface heating toward 34–35 °C. Model spread on cloud fraction, wind, and monsoon moisture creates the observed distribution, with resolution hinging on official CMA observations at the standard Beijing station. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs before the market settles.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
33°C 34%
32°C 22%
34°C 17%
31°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
13%
32°C
22%
33°C
34%
34°C
17%
35°C
6%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
3%
33°C 34%
32°C 22%
34°C 17%
31°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
$419 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$86 Vol.
1%
29°C
$23 Vol.
1%
30°C
$117 Vol.
4%
31°C
$731 Vol.
13%
32°C
$531 Vol.
22%
33°C
$714 Vol.
34%
34°C
$2,070 Vol.
17%
35°C
$982 Vol.
6%
36°C
$409 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$100 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, driving the market’s tight clustering around the 33 °C outcome at 33% implied probability. Afternoon convective timing and coverage remain the dominant variables, as earlier or more widespread thunderstorms could suppress insolation and enhance evaporative cooling toward 31–32 °C, while clearer intervals allow greater surface heating toward 34–35 °C. Model spread on cloud fraction, wind, and monsoon moisture creates the observed distribution, with resolution hinging on official CMA observations at the standard Beijing station. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,113Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, driving the market’s tight clustering around the 33 °C outcome at 33% implied probability. Afternoon convective timing and coverage remain the dominant variables, as earlier or more widespread thunderstorms could suppress insolation and enhance evaporative cooling toward 31–32 °C, while clearer intervals allow greater surface heating toward 34–35 °C. Model spread on cloud fraction, wind, and monsoon moisture creates the observed distribution, with resolution hinging on official CMA observations at the standard Beijing station. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs before the market settles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,113Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration guidance place Beijing’s August 24 maximum near 32–34 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, driving the market’s tight clustering around the 33 °C outcome at 33% implied probability. Afternoon convective timing and coverage remain the dominant variables, as earlier or more widespread thunderstorms could suppress insolation and enhance evaporative cooling toward 31–32 °C, while clearer intervals allow greater surface heating toward 34–35 °C. Model spread on cloud fraction, wind, and monsoon moisture creates the observed distribution, with resolution hinging on official CMA observations at the standard Beijing station. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs before the market settles.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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