The market reflects a tightly contested race for the top AI model by late November, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as traders weigh recent releases and benchmark performance. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese developers including DeepSeek and ByteDance sit near the front, driven by differences in model scale, post-training techniques, and specialized capabilities such as reasoning depth or multimodal integration. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, compute availability, and any regulatory shifts affecting model deployment. Historical patterns show leaderboards can shift quickly with a single high-performing release, underscoring the uncertainty traders price into the probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 26%
OpenAI 26%
Z.ai 26%
ByteDance 26%

Moonshot
26%

OpenAI
26%

Z.ai
26%

ByteDance
26%

MiniMax
26%

Thinky
26%

Mistral
26%

Amazon
26%

Tencent
26%

StepFun
26%

Microsoft
26%

26%

SpaceXAI
26%

Baidu
26%

Anthropic
24%

Xiaomi
14%

Meituan
14%

Alibaba
14%

Meta
14%

DeepSeek
14%

Nvidia
13%
Moonshot 26%
OpenAI 26%
Z.ai 26%
ByteDance 26%

Moonshot
26%

OpenAI
26%

Z.ai
26%

ByteDance
26%

MiniMax
26%

Thinky
26%

Mistral
26%

Amazon
26%

Tencent
26%

StepFun
26%

Microsoft
26%

26%

SpaceXAI
26%

Baidu
26%

Anthropic
24%

Xiaomi
14%

Meituan
14%

Alibaba
14%

Meta
14%

DeepSeek
14%

Nvidia
13%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...The market reflects a tightly contested race for the top AI model by late November, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as traders weigh recent releases and benchmark performance. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and several Chinese developers including DeepSeek and ByteDance sit near the front, driven by differences in model scale, post-training techniques, and specialized capabilities such as reasoning depth or multimodal integration. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, compute availability, and any regulatory shifts affecting model deployment. Historical patterns show leaderboards can shift quickly with a single high-performing release, underscoring the uncertainty traders price into the probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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