MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAmazon 25%
Meta 24%
ByteDance 24%
StepFun 23%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Amazon
25%
Meta
24%
ByteDance
24%
StepFun
23%
Anthropic
22%
Z.ai
19%
Microsoft
19%
Moonshot
16%
Baidu
16%
Xiaomi
15%
Mistral
15%
Alibaba
14%
Thinky
14%
MiniMax
12%
Meituan
9%
Nvidia
9%
Tencent
9%
DeepSeek
8%
OpenAI
8%
7%
SpaceXAI
14%
Amazon 25%
Meta 24%
ByteDance 24%
StepFun 23%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
Amazon
$33 Vol.
25%
Meta
$33 Vol.
24%
ByteDance
$33 Vol.
24%
StepFun
$33 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$33 Vol.
22%
Z.ai
$33 Vol.
19%
Microsoft
$33 Vol.
19%
Moonshot
$33 Vol.
16%
Baidu
$33 Vol.
16%
Xiaomi
$33 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$33 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$33 Vol.
12%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
9%
Nvidia
$33 Vol.
9%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$33 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$33 Vol.
8%
$39 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$35 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$700Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$700Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...MiniMax and OpenAI lead the market-implied odds for #3 AI lab status by end of November at 26.5% and 26.0%, reflecting recent large language model releases that demonstrated competitive benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal capabilities. DeepSeek, Google, and StepFun trail closely behind, supported by their ongoing platform updates and developer ecosystem momentum, while lower odds for Anthropic, Meta, and others highlight gaps in demonstrated AI safety features or user adoption metrics. The tight spread underscores intense competitive dynamics, with traders weighing factors like model training scale, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and potential announcements at upcoming industry events that could alter relative positioning before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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