Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourByteDance 24%
Z.ai 22%
Moonshot 21%
Xiaomi 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
ByteDance
24%
Z.ai
22%
Moonshot
21%
Xiaomi
21%
DeepSeek
20%
Thinky
20%
Mistral
20%
MiniMax
18%
Meta
16%
Nvidia
16%
OpenAI
15%
SpaceXAI
14%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
14%
Amazon
14%
Microsoft
14%
Baidu
14%
Meituan
14%
Anthropic
13%
StepFun
12%
12%
ByteDance 24%
Z.ai 22%
Moonshot 21%
Xiaomi 21%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
22%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
21%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
21%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
20%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
20%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
20%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
18%
Meta
$0 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
14%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
13%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
12%
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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