Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues through mid-2026, with numerous bills on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing past committee stages or reaching floor votes. The Trump administration’s December 2025 executive order prioritizes a minimally burdensome national framework, industry self-regulation, and preemption of stricter state measures, reducing urgency for binding federal standards. Recent state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois have addressed transparency and audits at the local level without prompting federal momentum, while partisan divides and upcoming midterm considerations further slow progress. Traders price this environment as sustaining an overwhelming consensus against enactment before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
11% chance
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
11% chance
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues through mid-2026, with numerous bills on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing past committee stages or reaching floor votes. The Trump administration’s December 2025 executive order prioritizes a minimally burdensome national framework, industry self-regulation, and preemption of stricter state measures, reducing urgency for binding federal standards. Recent state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois have addressed transparency and audits at the local level without prompting federal momentum, while partisan divides and upcoming midterm considerations further slow progress. Traders price this environment as sustaining an overwhelming consensus against enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,407Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues through mid-2026, with numerous bills on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing past committee stages or reaching floor votes. The Trump administration’s December 2025 executive order prioritizes a minimally burdensome national framework, industry self-regulation, and preemption of stricter state measures, reducing urgency for binding federal standards. Recent state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois have addressed transparency and audits at the local level without prompting federal momentum, while partisan divides and upcoming midterm considerations further slow progress. Traders price this environment as sustaining an overwhelming consensus against enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,407Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional inaction on comprehensive federal AI safety legislation continues through mid-2026, with numerous bills on frontier model oversight, risk assessments, and incident reporting introduced in the 119th Congress yet none advancing past committee stages or reaching floor votes. The Trump administration’s December 2025 executive order prioritizes a minimally burdensome national framework, industry self-regulation, and preemption of stricter state measures, reducing urgency for binding federal standards. Recent state enactments in California, New York, and Illinois have addressed transparency and audits at the local level without prompting federal momentum, while partisan divides and upcoming midterm considerations further slow progress. Traders price this environment as sustaining an overwhelming consensus against enactment before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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