Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 6.8%
$364,298 Vol.
$364,298 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Victoire de Renan Santos
<1%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Autre
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15 % 6.8%
$364,298 Vol.
$364,298 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$15,836 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$30,151 Vol.
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$26,425 Vol.
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
$30,536 Vol.
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$10,745 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$9,025 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$14,226 Vol.
7%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$211,721 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,889 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$4,913 Vol.
<1%
Autre
$5,830 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$364,298Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$364,298Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
87%
Oui
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
92%
Oui
Augusto Cury terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
52%
Oui
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