Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends through January 2029, underpins the market's strong consensus against resignation before 2027. Republican congressional majorities reduce the feasibility of impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings absent broad bipartisan support that has not emerged. No official statements, health disclosures, or scandals have triggered removal discussions, while institutional factors such as the 2024 electoral mandate continue to shape assessments. Speculation from opposition figures around midterm losses or personal fatigue has not shifted pricing. Late-breaking developments including a sudden medical event, major legal reversal, or unforeseen congressional shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$23,403 Vol.
$23,403 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$23,403 Vol.
$23,403 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends through January 2029, underpins the market's strong consensus against resignation before 2027. Republican congressional majorities reduce the feasibility of impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings absent broad bipartisan support that has not emerged. No official statements, health disclosures, or scandals have triggered removal discussions, while institutional factors such as the 2024 electoral mandate continue to shape assessments. Speculation from opposition figures around midterm losses or personal fatigue has not shifted pricing. Late-breaking developments including a sudden medical event, major legal reversal, or unforeseen congressional shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$23,403End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends through January 2029, underpins the market's strong consensus against resignation before 2027. Republican congressional majorities reduce the feasibility of impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings absent broad bipartisan support that has not emerged. No official statements, health disclosures, or scandals have triggered removal discussions, while institutional factors such as the 2024 electoral mandate continue to shape assessments. Speculation from opposition figures around midterm losses or personal fatigue has not shifted pricing. Late-breaking developments including a sudden medical event, major legal reversal, or unforeseen congressional shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,403End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's ongoing second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration and extends through January 2029, underpins the market's strong consensus against resignation before 2027. Republican congressional majorities reduce the feasibility of impeachment or 25th Amendment proceedings absent broad bipartisan support that has not emerged. No official statements, health disclosures, or scandals have triggered removal discussions, while institutional factors such as the 2024 electoral mandate continue to shape assessments. Speculation from opposition figures around midterm losses or personal fatigue has not shifted pricing. Late-breaking developments including a sudden medical event, major legal reversal, or unforeseen congressional shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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