**Trader consensus positions 40-64 tweets as the frontrunner at 46% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 20-22 activity, followed by under 40 at 33%, reflecting expectations of moderate output consistent with his recent patterns.** Over the prior week, Musk has maintained a daily average of roughly 24-26 posts on X, including replies and original content, with recent examples showing bursts of four to five posts in single sessions amid discussions on AI, Tesla, and platform features. No major scheduled events or statements signal a sharp deviation in the coming days, though weekend timing and variable engagement levels often moderate volume compared to midweek peaks. Historical data reinforces this range as typical rather than outlier activity, with traders weighing the platform owner’s consistent but fluctuating pace against the short three-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 46%
<40 32.6%
65-89 19%
90-114 3.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
<40
33%
40-64
46%
65-89
19%
90-114
4%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 46%
<40 32.6%
65-89 19%
90-114 3.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
<40
$323 Vol.
33%
40-64
$122 Vol.
46%
65-89
$71 Vol.
19%
90-114
$0 Vol.
4%
115-139
$676 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,617 Vol.
1%
165-189
$3,797 Vol.
1%
190-214
$1,120 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,120 Vol.
<1%
240+
$770 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus positions 40-64 tweets as the frontrunner at 46% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 20-22 activity, followed by under 40 at 33%, reflecting expectations of moderate output consistent with his recent patterns.**
Over the prior week, Musk has maintained a daily average of roughly 24-26 posts on X, including replies and original content, with recent examples showing bursts of four to five posts in single sessions amid discussions on AI, Tesla, and platform features. No major scheduled events or statements signal a sharp deviation in the coming days, though weekend timing and variable engagement levels often moderate volume compared to midweek peaks. Historical data reinforces this range as typical rather than outlier activity, with traders weighing the platform owner’s consistent but fluctuating pace against the short three-day window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$9,616End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus positions 40-64 tweets as the frontrunner at 46% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 20-22 activity, followed by under 40 at 33%, reflecting expectations of moderate output consistent with his recent patterns.**
Over the prior week, Musk has maintained a daily average of roughly 24-26 posts on X, including replies and original content, with recent examples showing bursts of four to five posts in single sessions amid discussions on AI, Tesla, and platform features. No major scheduled events or statements signal a sharp deviation in the coming days, though weekend timing and variable engagement levels often moderate volume compared to midweek peaks. Historical data reinforces this range as typical rather than outlier activity, with traders weighing the platform owner’s consistent but fluctuating pace against the short three-day window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$9,616End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus positions 40-64 tweets as the frontrunner at 46% implied probability for Elon Musk’s August 20-22 activity, followed by under 40 at 33%, reflecting expectations of moderate output consistent with his recent patterns.** Over the prior week, Musk has maintained a daily average of roughly 24-26 posts on X, including replies and original content, with recent examples showing bursts of four to five posts in single sessions amid discussions on AI, Tesla, and platform features. No major scheduled events or statements signal a sharp deviation in the coming days, though weekend timing and variable engagement levels often moderate volume compared to midweek peaks. Historical data reinforces this range as typical rather than outlier activity, with traders weighing the platform owner’s consistent but fluctuating pace against the short three-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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