The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026 and succession by Mojtaba Khamenei shifted management of the primary @khamenei_ir account toward infrequent reposts of archival material rather than new statements. Trader consensus places the highest implied probability on fewer than five posts during the August 21–28 window, consistent with the established low-volume pattern observed in comparable recent periods. Activity has remained limited to occasional messages tied to religious commemorations or foreign policy themes, with no scheduled high-profile events or diplomatic developments expected to prompt increased output in the coming week. This baseline reflects institutional caution amid ongoing regional tensions and the successor’s limited public profile since taking office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 21 - August 28, 2026?
50-54 49%
55-59 49%
60+ 49%
5-9 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
<5
44%
5-9
34%
10-14
33%
15-19
33%
20-24
33%
25-29
33%
30-34
33%
35-39
33%
40-44
33%
45-49
33%
50-54
49%
55-59
49%
60+
49%
50-54 49%
55-59 49%
60+ 49%
5-9 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
<5
$12 Vol.
44%
5-9
$0 Vol.
34%
10-14
$0 Vol.
33%
15-19
$0 Vol.
33%
20-24
$0 Vol.
33%
25-29
$0 Vol.
33%
30-34
$0 Vol.
33%
35-39
$0 Vol.
33%
40-44
$0 Vol.
33%
45-49
$0 Vol.
33%
50-54
$5 Vol.
49%
55-59
$5 Vol.
49%
60+
$5 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026 and succession by Mojtaba Khamenei shifted management of the primary @khamenei_ir account toward infrequent reposts of archival material rather than new statements. Trader consensus places the highest implied probability on fewer than five posts during the August 21–28 window, consistent with the established low-volume pattern observed in comparable recent periods. Activity has remained limited to occasional messages tied to religious commemorations or foreign policy themes, with no scheduled high-profile events or diplomatic developments expected to prompt increased output in the coming week. This baseline reflects institutional caution amid ongoing regional tensions and the successor’s limited public profile since taking office.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026 and succession by Mojtaba Khamenei shifted management of the primary @khamenei_ir account toward infrequent reposts of archival material rather than new statements. Trader consensus places the highest implied probability on fewer than five posts during the August 21–28 window, consistent with the established low-volume pattern observed in comparable recent periods. Activity has remained limited to occasional messages tied to religious commemorations or foreign policy themes, with no scheduled high-profile events or diplomatic developments expected to prompt increased output in the coming week. This baseline reflects institutional caution amid ongoing regional tensions and the successor’s limited public profile since taking office.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$27End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026 and succession by Mojtaba Khamenei shifted management of the primary @khamenei_ir account toward infrequent reposts of archival material rather than new statements. Trader consensus places the highest implied probability on fewer than five posts during the August 21–28 window, consistent with the established low-volume pattern observed in comparable recent periods. Activity has remained limited to occasional messages tied to religious commemorations or foreign policy themes, with no scheduled high-profile events or diplomatic developments expected to prompt increased output in the coming week. This baseline reflects institutional caution amid ongoing regional tensions and the successor’s limited public profile since taking office.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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