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Geopolitics·Middle East

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

15% chance
Polymarket

$64,779,510 Vol.

15% chance
Polymarket

$64,779,510 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on economic sanctions, naval blockade enforcement, and targeted strikes rather than large-scale troop commitments.** Ongoing hostilities since the February 2026 start of U.S.-Israeli operations have centered on airstrikes against Iranian military targets, especially IRGC positions near the Strait of Hormuz, with recent exchanges in late August and early September 2026 involving U.S. strikes on minelaying and air-defense sites followed by Iranian retaliation on regional U.S. bases. Officials have signaled a shift to sustained economic pressure—including rescinded oil waivers and secondary sanctions—while explicitly ruling out new offensive campaigns for now. Analysts and former commanders continue to highlight the prohibitive costs, risks of Iranian resistance, and limited strategic gains associated with any mainland invasion scenario, consistent with the 85.5% implied probability assigned by traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$64,779,510
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects the Trump administration’s emphasis on economic sanctions, naval blockade enforcement, and targeted strikes rather than large-scale troop commitments.** Ongoing hostilities since the February 2026 start of U.S.-Israeli operations have centered on airstrikes against Iranian military targets, especially IRGC positions near the Strait of Hormuz, with recent exchanges in late August and early September 2026 involving U.S. strikes on minelaying and air-defense sites followed by Iranian retaliation on regional U.S. bases. Officials have signaled a shift to sustained economic pressure—including rescinded oil waivers and secondary sanctions—while explicitly ruling out new offensive campaigns for now. Analysts and former commanders continue to highlight the prohibitive costs, risks of Iranian resistance, and limited strategic gains associated with any mainland invasion scenario, consistent with the 85.5% implied probability assigned by traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$64,779,510
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has generated $64.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.