Israeli authorities closed the country's airspace to civilian flights on February 28, 2026, immediately after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The Tel Aviv FIR has remained subject to restrictions and caution advisories, with limited operations possible only under special approval and most international carriers avoiding the area. Transportation officials have discussed phased reopening tied to security conditions, while EASA and other regulators extended risk warnings through at least June 10, 2026. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments between Israel and Iran, including any further strikes or responses, continue to shape assessments of additional closures within defined timeframes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4,762,951 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
June 15
11%
June 30
14%
$4,762,951 Vol.
June 15
$682,731 Vol.
11%
June 30
$506,217 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities closed the country's airspace to civilian flights on February 28, 2026, immediately after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The Tel Aviv FIR has remained subject to restrictions and caution advisories, with limited operations possible only under special approval and most international carriers avoiding the area. Transportation officials have discussed phased reopening tied to security conditions, while EASA and other regulators extended risk warnings through at least June 10, 2026. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments between Israel and Iran, including any further strikes or responses, continue to shape assessments of additional closures within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$4,762,951End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli authorities closed the country's airspace to civilian flights on February 28, 2026, immediately after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The Tel Aviv FIR has remained subject to restrictions and caution advisories, with limited operations possible only under special approval and most international carriers avoiding the area. Transportation officials have discussed phased reopening tied to security conditions, while EASA and other regulators extended risk warnings through at least June 10, 2026. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments between Israel and Iran, including any further strikes or responses, continue to shape assessments of additional closures within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,762,951End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli authorities closed the country's airspace to civilian flights on February 28, 2026, immediately after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets, which prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The Tel Aviv FIR has remained subject to restrictions and caution advisories, with limited operations possible only under special approval and most international carriers avoiding the area. Transportation officials have discussed phased reopening tied to security conditions, while EASA and other regulators extended risk warnings through at least June 10, 2026. Ongoing diplomatic and military developments between Israel and Iran, including any further strikes or responses, continue to shape assessments of additional closures within defined timeframes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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