US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
July 31
1%
August 31
12%
$989 Vol.
July 31
$680 Vol.
1%
August 31
$309 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$989End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$989End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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