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World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.7%

No Head of State 4.0%

Reza Pahlavi 3.0%

Alireza Arafi 2.0%

Polymarket

$38,685,225 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.7%

No Head of State 4.0%

Reza Pahlavi 3.0%

Alireza Arafi 2.0%

Polymarket

$38,685,225 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,067,090 Vol.

83%

No Head of State

$1,149,523 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$673,104 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,312,370 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,120,964 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,945 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,426,288 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$777,052 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,430 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,308 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,892 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,728 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,718 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,145,531 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$806,218 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$398,130 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,651 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$146,921 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$214,866 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,474 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$836,443 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$434,310 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,347,980 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,447 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$388,432 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,192,306 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,978 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,791 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,887 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$342,587 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads the market at 82.7% because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly’s unanimous selection preserved continuity within the Islamic Republic’s clerical and security structures despite the constitutional aversion to hereditary succession. Ongoing military pressure, economic sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz tensions have not yet displaced the regime’s core institutions, keeping the probability of regime collapse or a different head of state low. Traders assign minimal odds to alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi, reformist clerics, or “no head of state” because those scenarios would require rapid institutional breakdown or successful external regime-change efforts within the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,685,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads the market at 82.7% because he was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly’s unanimous selection preserved continuity within the Islamic Republic’s clerical and security structures despite the constitutional aversion to hereditary succession. Ongoing military pressure, economic sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz tensions have not yet displaced the regime’s core institutions, keeping the probability of regime collapse or a different head of state low. Traders assign minimal odds to alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi, reformist clerics, or “no head of state” because those scenarios would require rapid institutional breakdown or successful external regime-change efforts within the remaining months of 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,685,225
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 83%, followed by "No Head of State" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $38.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.