Recent U.S. reinstatement of its naval blockade on Iranian ports effective July 14, coupled with Iranian attacks on commercial vessels starting July 7, has sharply curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily crossings falling to single digits or low teens in mid-July versus pre-conflict averages exceeding 125. This escalation follows a fragile June cease-fire and has prompted widespread vessel dark transits, corridor restrictions favoring Iranian-linked traffic, and elevated war-risk premiums that suppress commercial volumes. Oil and energy markets price in sustained supply-chain constraints, while the closely matched 49.5% odds across volume bins reflect trader uncertainty over whether de-escalation talks or further strikes will dominate the July 20 week. Key swing factors include FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment and any reported blockade adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
50-74 36%
<50 30%
75-99 25%
125+ 10.0%
$22,742 Vol.
$22,742 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<50
30%
50-74
36%
75-99
28%
100-124
12%
125+
10%
50-74 36%
<50 30%
75-99 25%
125+ 10.0%
$22,742 Vol.
$22,742 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<50
$15,122 Vol.
30%
50-74
$1,727 Vol.
36%
75-99
$2,109 Vol.
28%
100-124
$2,009 Vol.
12%
125+
$1,774 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. reinstatement of its naval blockade on Iranian ports effective July 14, coupled with Iranian attacks on commercial vessels starting July 7, has sharply curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily crossings falling to single digits or low teens in mid-July versus pre-conflict averages exceeding 125. This escalation follows a fragile June cease-fire and has prompted widespread vessel dark transits, corridor restrictions favoring Iranian-linked traffic, and elevated war-risk premiums that suppress commercial volumes. Oil and energy markets price in sustained supply-chain constraints, while the closely matched 49.5% odds across volume bins reflect trader uncertainty over whether de-escalation talks or further strikes will dominate the July 20 week. Key swing factors include FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment and any reported blockade adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
Volume
$22,742End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. reinstatement of its naval blockade on Iranian ports effective July 14, coupled with Iranian attacks on commercial vessels starting July 7, has sharply curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily crossings falling to single digits or low teens in mid-July versus pre-conflict averages exceeding 125. This escalation follows a fragile June cease-fire and has prompted widespread vessel dark transits, corridor restrictions favoring Iranian-linked traffic, and elevated war-risk premiums that suppress commercial volumes. Oil and energy markets price in sustained supply-chain constraints, while the closely matched 49.5% odds across volume bins reflect trader uncertainty over whether de-escalation talks or further strikes will dominate the July 20 week. Key swing factors include FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment and any reported blockade adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$22,742End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. reinstatement of its naval blockade on Iranian ports effective July 14, coupled with Iranian attacks on commercial vessels starting July 7, has sharply curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily crossings falling to single digits or low teens in mid-July versus pre-conflict averages exceeding 125. This escalation follows a fragile June cease-fire and has prompted widespread vessel dark transits, corridor restrictions favoring Iranian-linked traffic, and elevated war-risk premiums that suppress commercial volumes. Oil and energy markets price in sustained supply-chain constraints, while the closely matched 49.5% odds across volume bins reflect trader uncertainty over whether de-escalation talks or further strikes will dominate the July 20 week. Key swing factors include FOMC-adjacent risk sentiment and any reported blockade adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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