Iran's sustained military presence on Hormuz Island and adjacent features in the Strait of Hormuz underpins trader views that the island will remain under Tehran’s control through late 2026. Since February 2026 conflict escalation, Iran has reinforced island-based missile, drone, and naval assets while pursuing diplomatic recognition via talks with Oman and a US memorandum of understanding on strait administration. US Central Command strikes on Iranian coastal sites, including Larak Island in late August, and Gulf Cooperation Council opposition to Iranian tolls or routing authority have tested but not displaced this position. Ongoing negotiations, potential further US responses to mine-laying or vessel threats, and any shifts in Oman’s stance represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before year-end resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$70,725 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$70,725 Vol.
September 30
$448 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's sustained military presence on Hormuz Island and adjacent features in the Strait of Hormuz underpins trader views that the island will remain under Tehran’s control through late 2026. Since February 2026 conflict escalation, Iran has reinforced island-based missile, drone, and naval assets while pursuing diplomatic recognition via talks with Oman and a US memorandum of understanding on strait administration. US Central Command strikes on Iranian coastal sites, including Larak Island in late August, and Gulf Cooperation Council opposition to Iranian tolls or routing authority have tested but not displaced this position. Ongoing negotiations, potential further US responses to mine-laying or vessel threats, and any shifts in Oman’s stance represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's sustained military presence on Hormuz Island and adjacent features in the Strait of Hormuz underpins trader views that the island will remain under Tehran’s control through late 2026. Since February 2026 conflict escalation, Iran has reinforced island-based missile, drone, and naval assets while pursuing diplomatic recognition via talks with Oman and a US memorandum of understanding on strait administration. US Central Command strikes on Iranian coastal sites, including Larak Island in late August, and Gulf Cooperation Council opposition to Iranian tolls or routing authority have tested but not displaced this position. Ongoing negotiations, potential further US responses to mine-laying or vessel threats, and any shifts in Oman’s stance represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,725End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's sustained military presence on Hormuz Island and adjacent features in the Strait of Hormuz underpins trader views that the island will remain under Tehran’s control through late 2026. Since February 2026 conflict escalation, Iran has reinforced island-based missile, drone, and naval assets while pursuing diplomatic recognition via talks with Oman and a US memorandum of understanding on strait administration. US Central Command strikes on Iranian coastal sites, including Larak Island in late August, and Gulf Cooperation Council opposition to Iranian tolls or routing authority have tested but not displaced this position. Ongoing negotiations, potential further US responses to mine-laying or vessel threats, and any shifts in Oman’s stance represent the main variables that could alter probabilities before year-end resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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