Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam in July 2026 and subsequent targeting of nearby IRGC positions on Larak Island, have tested Iranian island defenses without altering territorial control. Hengam remains integrated into Tehran’s coastal network alongside Qeshm, Larak, and the Tunb islands, where Iran has reinforced troop deployments, mine-laying operations, and anti-shipping capabilities while asserting full sovereignty. Diplomatic coordination with Oman on revised shipping maps and a proposed new exclusion zone further signals continued Iranian administration. No verified ground incursions, occupations, or transfers of authority have occurred, keeping the implied probability of loss of control by late September 2026 below 5 percent in trader consensus. Resolution hinges on official statements confirming primary governmental or military control by another actor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,407 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$208,407 Vol.
September 30
$2,567 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam in July 2026 and subsequent targeting of nearby IRGC positions on Larak Island, have tested Iranian island defenses without altering territorial control. Hengam remains integrated into Tehran’s coastal network alongside Qeshm, Larak, and the Tunb islands, where Iran has reinforced troop deployments, mine-laying operations, and anti-shipping capabilities while asserting full sovereignty. Diplomatic coordination with Oman on revised shipping maps and a proposed new exclusion zone further signals continued Iranian administration. No verified ground incursions, occupations, or transfers of authority have occurred, keeping the implied probability of loss of control by late September 2026 below 5 percent in trader consensus. Resolution hinges on official statements confirming primary governmental or military control by another actor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,407End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam in July 2026 and subsequent targeting of nearby IRGC positions on Larak Island, have tested Iranian island defenses without altering territorial control. Hengam remains integrated into Tehran’s coastal network alongside Qeshm, Larak, and the Tunb islands, where Iran has reinforced troop deployments, mine-laying operations, and anti-shipping capabilities while asserting full sovereignty. Diplomatic coordination with Oman on revised shipping maps and a proposed new exclusion zone further signals continued Iranian administration. No verified ground incursions, occupations, or transfers of authority have occurred, keeping the implied probability of loss of control by late September 2026 below 5 percent in trader consensus. Resolution hinges on official statements confirming primary governmental or military control by another actor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,407End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam in July 2026 and subsequent targeting of nearby IRGC positions on Larak Island, have tested Iranian island defenses without altering territorial control. Hengam remains integrated into Tehran’s coastal network alongside Qeshm, Larak, and the Tunb islands, where Iran has reinforced troop deployments, mine-laying operations, and anti-shipping capabilities while asserting full sovereignty. Diplomatic coordination with Oman on revised shipping maps and a proposed new exclusion zone further signals continued Iranian administration. No verified ground incursions, occupations, or transfers of authority have occurred, keeping the implied probability of loss of control by late September 2026 below 5 percent in trader consensus. Resolution hinges on official statements confirming primary governmental or military control by another actor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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