Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and nearby targets, have not altered Iranian administration of the island. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional forces while continuing to assert primary governmental and military control, consistent with its broader defense of strategic chokepoints. A temporary memorandum of understanding reached in June initiated a 60-day negotiation window, but no verified shifts in sovereignty or occupation have occurred. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control by late September, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, territorial concessions, or confirmed changes in effective authority amid the active conflict that began in February.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,395 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,395 Vol.
September 30
$2,554 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and nearby targets, have not altered Iranian administration of the island. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional forces while continuing to assert primary governmental and military control, consistent with its broader defense of strategic chokepoints. A temporary memorandum of understanding reached in June initiated a 60-day negotiation window, but no verified shifts in sovereignty or occupation have occurred. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control by late September, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, territorial concessions, or confirmed changes in effective authority amid the active conflict that began in February.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,395End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and nearby targets, have not altered Iranian administration of the island. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional forces while continuing to assert primary governmental and military control, consistent with its broader defense of strategic chokepoints. A temporary memorandum of understanding reached in June initiated a 60-day negotiation window, but no verified shifts in sovereignty or occupation have occurred. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control by late September, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, territorial concessions, or confirmed changes in effective authority amid the active conflict that began in February.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,395End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and nearby targets, have not altered Iranian administration of the island. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional forces while continuing to assert primary governmental and military control, consistent with its broader defense of strategic chokepoints. A temporary memorandum of understanding reached in June initiated a 60-day negotiation window, but no verified shifts in sovereignty or occupation have occurred. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to any near-term loss of control by late September, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, territorial concessions, or confirmed changes in effective authority amid the active conflict that began in February.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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