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icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,808,700 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,808,700 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$54,889 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.25%

$142,516 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.0%

$19,015 Vol.

3%

↑ 4.75%

$80,602 Vol.

5%

↑ 4.5%

$38,791 Vol.

15%

↑ 4.25%

$122,892 Vol.

41%

↓ 3.25%

$81,283 Vol.

7%

↓ 3.0%

$314,172 Vol.

4%

↓ 2.75%

$363,566 Vol.

3%

↓ 2.5%

$217,812 Vol.

3%

↓ 2.25%

$40,262 Vol.

3%

↓ 2.0%

$18,802 Vol.

3%

↓ 1.75%

$12,289 Vol.

1%

↓ 1.5%

$28,320 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.25%

$3,778 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.0%

$2,205 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.75%

$731 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.5%

$106,984 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.25%

$131,589 Vol.

3%

↓ 0%

$19,202 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with the effective rate at 3.63% as of early September 2026. Elevated core PCE inflation, supply shocks from energy and geopolitics, and resilient GDP and labor market data have prompted a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the June dot plot showing a median endpoint of 3.8% for 2026 and nine participants favoring at least one hike this year. Markets now price a meaningful chance of tightening at the September 16 meeting, while economist surveys largely anticipate no change through year-end and the first cuts pushed into 2027. The upcoming FOMC statement, revised projections, and fresh CPI and payrolls releases will directly influence the path before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,808,700
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with the effective rate at 3.63% as of early September 2026. Elevated core PCE inflation, supply shocks from energy and geopolitics, and resilient GDP and labor market data have prompted a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with the June dot plot showing a median endpoint of 3.8% for 2026 and nine participants favoring at least one hike this year. Markets now price a meaningful chance of tightening at the September 16 meeting, while economist surveys largely anticipate no change through year-end and the first cuts pushed into 2027. The upcoming FOMC statement, revised projections, and fresh CPI and payrolls releases will directly influence the path before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,808,700
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↑ 4.25%" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↑ 4.25%" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.