**A shift to cooler southeasterly flow ahead of a low-pressure system is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington’s September 7 minimum.** Official forecasts show a transition from mild northwesterlies to stronger southerlies, with widespread rain expected to suppress daytime highs to 10–14 °C and overnight lows into the 4–8 °C range. Model guidance varies on how far south the coldest air reaches and how much cloud and precipitation moderates radiational cooling, creating genuine uncertainty around whether the daily minimum falls to 4 °C or below or stays near 8–9 °C. Historical September minima average near 6–7 °C, but the current setup’s wind direction and timing of the frontal passage are the key variables that could push the outcome either lower or higher. Updated model runs and MetService guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
14°C or higher 69%
10°C 49%
6°C 48%
4°C or below 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
36%
5°C
12%
6°C
48%
7°C
26%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
49%
11°C
9%
12°C
5%
13°C
16%
14°C or higher
69%
14°C or higher 69%
10°C 49%
6°C 48%
4°C or below 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
36%
5°C
$123 Vol.
12%
6°C
$0 Vol.
48%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$89 Vol.
9%
12°C
$37 Vol.
5%
13°C
$81 Vol.
16%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A shift to cooler southeasterly flow ahead of a low-pressure system is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington’s September 7 minimum.** Official forecasts show a transition from mild northwesterlies to stronger southerlies, with widespread rain expected to suppress daytime highs to 10–14 °C and overnight lows into the 4–8 °C range. Model guidance varies on how far south the coldest air reaches and how much cloud and precipitation moderates radiational cooling, creating genuine uncertainty around whether the daily minimum falls to 4 °C or below or stays near 8–9 °C. Historical September minima average near 6–7 °C, but the current setup’s wind direction and timing of the frontal passage are the key variables that could push the outcome either lower or higher. Updated model runs and MetService guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$330End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A shift to cooler southeasterly flow ahead of a low-pressure system is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington’s September 7 minimum.** Official forecasts show a transition from mild northwesterlies to stronger southerlies, with widespread rain expected to suppress daytime highs to 10–14 °C and overnight lows into the 4–8 °C range. Model guidance varies on how far south the coldest air reaches and how much cloud and precipitation moderates radiational cooling, creating genuine uncertainty around whether the daily minimum falls to 4 °C or below or stays near 8–9 °C. Historical September minima average near 6–7 °C, but the current setup’s wind direction and timing of the frontal passage are the key variables that could push the outcome either lower or higher. Updated model runs and MetService guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$330End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A shift to cooler southeasterly flow ahead of a low-pressure system is the main driver behind the closely matched market odds for Wellington’s September 7 minimum.** Official forecasts show a transition from mild northwesterlies to stronger southerlies, with widespread rain expected to suppress daytime highs to 10–14 °C and overnight lows into the 4–8 °C range. Model guidance varies on how far south the coldest air reaches and how much cloud and precipitation moderates radiational cooling, creating genuine uncertainty around whether the daily minimum falls to 4 °C or below or stays near 8–9 °C. Historical September minima average near 6–7 °C, but the current setup’s wind direction and timing of the frontal passage are the key variables that could push the outcome either lower or higher. Updated model runs and MetService guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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