Recent forecast model runs and observational data from New Zealand meteorological sources indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will settle near 11°C, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus. Mild northwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and dew points around 10–11°C have limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping readings above the seasonal average low near 8–9°C. Current airport observations hovering at 13–14°C with only modest further decline expected overnight reinforce this outcome. A clearer sky or unexpected wind shift could allow temperatures to dip toward 9–10°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable atmospheric pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 5?
11°C 99.6%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99.6%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
7°C or below
$67 Vol.
1%
8°C
$76 Vol.
1%
9°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$530 Vol.
100%
12°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$3,206 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs and observational data from New Zealand meteorological sources indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will settle near 11°C, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus. Mild northwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and dew points around 10–11°C have limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping readings above the seasonal average low near 8–9°C. Current airport observations hovering at 13–14°C with only modest further decline expected overnight reinforce this outcome. A clearer sky or unexpected wind shift could allow temperatures to dip toward 9–10°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable atmospheric pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$9,045End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs and observational data from New Zealand meteorological sources indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will settle near 11°C, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus. Mild northwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and dew points around 10–11°C have limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping readings above the seasonal average low near 8–9°C. Current airport observations hovering at 13–14°C with only modest further decline expected overnight reinforce this outcome. A clearer sky or unexpected wind shift could allow temperatures to dip toward 9–10°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable atmospheric pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,045End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs and observational data from New Zealand meteorological sources indicate Wellington's minimum temperature on September 5 will settle near 11°C, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus. Mild northwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and dew points around 10–11°C have limited overnight radiative cooling, keeping readings above the seasonal average low near 8–9°C. Current airport observations hovering at 13–14°C with only modest further decline expected overnight reinforce this outcome. A clearer sky or unexpected wind shift could allow temperatures to dip toward 9–10°C, though such revisions appear unlikely given the stable atmospheric pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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