Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
31°C 99.4%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$38,848 Vol.
$38,848 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.4%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$38,848 Vol.
$38,848 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
$541 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$305 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,548 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,483 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,426 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$8,864 Vol.
99%
32°C
$6,938 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$7,879 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$38,848End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,848End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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