**Forecast models and real-time observations have positioned 30–31°C as the dominant range for Shanghai’s daily maximum on September 5, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.** Northeast winds of 10–13 mph, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers have limited daytime heating while maintaining high humidity near 65–70 percent, keeping surface temperatures from climbing much above 31°C or dropping below 30°C. Recent model consensus from global and regional runs shows afternoon peaks clustered tightly around these values, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River Delta. With the trading day coinciding with the observation window, any late-afternoon clearing or additional cloud cover could nudge the official reading (typically from Shanghai meteorological stations) between the two leading bins. Traders appear to view further deviation as low-probability given the stable steering pattern and lack of stronger synoptic forcing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
30°C 85%
31°C 14%
32°C 2%
25°C or below <1%
$48,029 Vol.
$48,029 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
85%
31°C
14%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 85%
31°C 14%
32°C 2%
25°C or below <1%
$48,029 Vol.
$48,029 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
25°C or below
$797 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$665 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$3,597 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,770 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$9,922 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$10,428 Vol.
85%
31°C
$9,450 Vol.
14%
32°C
$6,511 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,183 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$461 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$244 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have positioned 30–31°C as the dominant range for Shanghai’s daily maximum on September 5, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.**
Northeast winds of 10–13 mph, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers have limited daytime heating while maintaining high humidity near 65–70 percent, keeping surface temperatures from climbing much above 31°C or dropping below 30°C. Recent model consensus from global and regional runs shows afternoon peaks clustered tightly around these values, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River Delta. With the trading day coinciding with the observation window, any late-afternoon clearing or additional cloud cover could nudge the official reading (typically from Shanghai meteorological stations) between the two leading bins. Traders appear to view further deviation as low-probability given the stable steering pattern and lack of stronger synoptic forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$48,029End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations have positioned 30–31°C as the dominant range for Shanghai’s daily maximum on September 5, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.**
Northeast winds of 10–13 mph, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers have limited daytime heating while maintaining high humidity near 65–70 percent, keeping surface temperatures from climbing much above 31°C or dropping below 30°C. Recent model consensus from global and regional runs shows afternoon peaks clustered tightly around these values, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River Delta. With the trading day coinciding with the observation window, any late-afternoon clearing or additional cloud cover could nudge the official reading (typically from Shanghai meteorological stations) between the two leading bins. Traders appear to view further deviation as low-probability given the stable steering pattern and lack of stronger synoptic forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48,029End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and real-time observations have positioned 30–31°C as the dominant range for Shanghai’s daily maximum on September 5, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward these two outcomes.** Northeast winds of 10–13 mph, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers have limited daytime heating while maintaining high humidity near 65–70 percent, keeping surface temperatures from climbing much above 31°C or dropping below 30°C. Recent model consensus from global and regional runs shows afternoon peaks clustered tightly around these values, consistent with late-summer climatology for the Yangtze River Delta. With the trading day coinciding with the observation window, any late-afternoon clearing or additional cloud cover could nudge the official reading (typically from Shanghai meteorological stations) between the two leading bins. Traders appear to view further deviation as low-probability given the stable steering pattern and lack of stronger synoptic forcing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions