Recent forecast model consensus points to a southerly wind shift and widespread rain on September 7, suppressing maximum temperatures in Wellington to the 12–13°C range. Official guidance from agencies like MetService and international ensembles shows a cool, moist air mass arriving behind a front, with daytime highs limited by cloud cover, precipitation, and winds from the southeast at 20–30 km/h. This setup aligns with historical September patterns where such synoptic changes typically cap peaks 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Market-implied odds favor 13°C as the mode because current runs cluster there, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of the front could push the outcome toward 12°C or 14°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
13°C 42%
14°C 22%
12°C 21%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
5%
12°C
21%
13°C
42%
14°C
22%
15°C
8%
16°C
4%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
13°C 42%
14°C 22%
12°C 21%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$400 Vol.
1%
10°C
$24 Vol.
4%
11°C
$123 Vol.
5%
12°C
$159 Vol.
21%
13°C
$349 Vol.
42%
14°C
$461 Vol.
22%
15°C
$191 Vol.
8%
16°C
$88 Vol.
4%
17°C
$70 Vol.
4%
18°C
$35 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to a southerly wind shift and widespread rain on September 7, suppressing maximum temperatures in Wellington to the 12–13°C range. Official guidance from agencies like MetService and international ensembles shows a cool, moist air mass arriving behind a front, with daytime highs limited by cloud cover, precipitation, and winds from the southeast at 20–30 km/h. This setup aligns with historical September patterns where such synoptic changes typically cap peaks 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Market-implied odds favor 13°C as the mode because current runs cluster there, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of the front could push the outcome toward 12°C or 14°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,920End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus points to a southerly wind shift and widespread rain on September 7, suppressing maximum temperatures in Wellington to the 12–13°C range. Official guidance from agencies like MetService and international ensembles shows a cool, moist air mass arriving behind a front, with daytime highs limited by cloud cover, precipitation, and winds from the southeast at 20–30 km/h. This setup aligns with historical September patterns where such synoptic changes typically cap peaks 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Market-implied odds favor 13°C as the mode because current runs cluster there, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of the front could push the outcome toward 12°C or 14°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,920End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus points to a southerly wind shift and widespread rain on September 7, suppressing maximum temperatures in Wellington to the 12–13°C range. Official guidance from agencies like MetService and international ensembles shows a cool, moist air mass arriving behind a front, with daytime highs limited by cloud cover, precipitation, and winds from the southeast at 20–30 km/h. This setup aligns with historical September patterns where such synoptic changes typically cap peaks 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Market-implied odds favor 13°C as the mode because current runs cluster there, though minor shifts in timing or intensity of the front could push the outcome toward 12°C or 14°C. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours will further refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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