Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services, including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and regional models, converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on August 31, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 80–90%, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the late-August pattern of warm, moist air masses over eastern China, where typical minimums range 24–26°C but recent days have run slightly warmer. Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the most probable outcome, with 28°C as the secondary possibility if clearing allows marginally less cooling; probabilities for 26°C or below remain low absent a stronger frontal passage or model shift before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
27°C 71%
28°C 22%
26°C 8%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
8%
27°C
71%
28°C
22%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 71%
28°C 22%
26°C 8%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
$58 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$591 Vol.
8%
27°C
$2,544 Vol.
71%
28°C
$1,917 Vol.
22%
29°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$129 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,062 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services, including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and regional models, converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on August 31, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 80–90%, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the late-August pattern of warm, moist air masses over eastern China, where typical minimums range 24–26°C but recent days have run slightly warmer. Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the most probable outcome, with 28°C as the secondary possibility if clearing allows marginally less cooling; probabilities for 26°C or below remain low absent a stronger frontal passage or model shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$7,091End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services, including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and regional models, converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on August 31, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 80–90%, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the late-August pattern of warm, moist air masses over eastern China, where typical minimums range 24–26°C but recent days have run slightly warmer. Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the most probable outcome, with 28°C as the secondary possibility if clearing allows marginally less cooling; probabilities for 26°C or below remain low absent a stronger frontal passage or model shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,091End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological services, including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and regional models, converge on an overnight low of 25–27°C for Shanghai on August 31, driven by persistent southerly flow, high humidity near 80–90%, and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. These conditions align with the late-August pattern of warm, moist air masses over eastern China, where typical minimums range 24–26°C but recent days have run slightly warmer. Trader consensus heavily favors 27°C as the most probable outcome, with 28°C as the secondary possibility if clearing allows marginally less cooling; probabilities for 26°C or below remain low absent a stronger frontal passage or model shift before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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