**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including easeweather, Yr.no, and PAGASA regional outlooks, indicate nighttime minimum temperatures in Manila on September 1, 2026, are most likely to fall between 25–28°C.** This tight clustering explains why the leading market outcomes (28°C at 28.5%, 26°C and 27°C near 28% each, and 25°C at 25.5%) remain so evenly matched, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight low amid ongoing monsoon conditions. The dominant driver is the active southwest monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by a distant tropical depression (Pilandok) east of Luzon. Persistent cloud cover, moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and scattered showers limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Official PAGASA observations from late August show recent overnight lows near 25°C under similar conditions, while short-range model guidance points to minima around 26–27°C on the 1st amid 70–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain. An ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño in the Pacific provides broader context but has limited immediate influence on this 48-hour window. Model consensus supports the market-implied range; any shift would require clearer signals of reduced cloudiness or stronger winds that allow greater overnight cooling. Updated PAGASA and global model runs over the next day will be the key catalyst for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 1?
26°C 30%
28°C 29%
27°C 28%
25°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
11%
25°C
25%
26°C
30%
27°C
28%
28°C
29%
29°C
24%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
26°C 30%
28°C 29%
27°C 28%
25°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
30%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
29%
29°C
$75 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$648 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including easeweather, Yr.no, and PAGASA regional outlooks, indicate nighttime minimum temperatures in Manila on September 1, 2026, are most likely to fall between 25–28°C.** This tight clustering explains why the leading market outcomes (28°C at 28.5%, 26°C and 27°C near 28% each, and 25°C at 25.5%) remain so evenly matched, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight low amid ongoing monsoon conditions.
The dominant driver is the active southwest monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by a distant tropical depression (Pilandok) east of Luzon. Persistent cloud cover, moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and scattered showers limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Official PAGASA observations from late August show recent overnight lows near 25°C under similar conditions, while short-range model guidance points to minima around 26–27°C on the 1st amid 70–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain.
An ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño in the Pacific provides broader context but has limited immediate influence on this 48-hour window. Model consensus supports the market-implied range; any shift would require clearer signals of reduced cloudiness or stronger winds that allow greater overnight cooling. Updated PAGASA and global model runs over the next day will be the key catalyst for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$733End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including easeweather, Yr.no, and PAGASA regional outlooks, indicate nighttime minimum temperatures in Manila on September 1, 2026, are most likely to fall between 25–28°C.** This tight clustering explains why the leading market outcomes (28°C at 28.5%, 26°C and 27°C near 28% each, and 25°C at 25.5%) remain so evenly matched, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight low amid ongoing monsoon conditions.
The dominant driver is the active southwest monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by a distant tropical depression (Pilandok) east of Luzon. Persistent cloud cover, moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and scattered showers limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Official PAGASA observations from late August show recent overnight lows near 25°C under similar conditions, while short-range model guidance points to minima around 26–27°C on the 1st amid 70–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain.
An ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño in the Pacific provides broader context but has limited immediate influence on this 48-hour window. Model consensus supports the market-implied range; any shift would require clearer signals of reduced cloudiness or stronger winds that allow greater overnight cooling. Updated PAGASA and global model runs over the next day will be the key catalyst for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$733End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including easeweather, Yr.no, and PAGASA regional outlooks, indicate nighttime minimum temperatures in Manila on September 1, 2026, are most likely to fall between 25–28°C.** This tight clustering explains why the leading market outcomes (28°C at 28.5%, 26°C and 27°C near 28% each, and 25°C at 25.5%) remain so evenly matched, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise overnight low amid ongoing monsoon conditions. The dominant driver is the active southwest monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by a distant tropical depression (Pilandok) east of Luzon. Persistent cloud cover, moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and scattered showers limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Official PAGASA observations from late August show recent overnight lows near 25°C under similar conditions, while short-range model guidance points to minima around 26–27°C on the 1st amid 70–100% cloud cover and light-to-moderate rain. An ongoing moderate-to-strong El Niño in the Pacific provides broader context but has limited immediate influence on this 48-hour window. Model consensus supports the market-implied range; any shift would require clearer signals of reduced cloudiness or stronger winds that allow greater overnight cooling. Updated PAGASA and global model runs over the next day will be the key catalyst for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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