Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-derived guidance, indicate Karachi's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely settle near 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 42.5% implied probability. Persistent westerly sea breezes off the Arabian Sea, combined with high boundary-layer humidity and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, are suppressing typical post-monsoon drops. Historical September minima average 26–27°C, but recent model runs show slightly warmer conditions persisting into mid-month with only trace precipitation possible. Traders appear to weigh the risk of brief cooling episodes or model revisions that could push readings to 23°C or below, reflected in that option's 29.5% share, while awaiting updated Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance or the next ensemble runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 14?
23°C or below 59%
33°C or higher 59%
28°C 44%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
23°C or below
59%
24°C
17%
25°C
39%
26°C
21%
27°C
29%
28°C
37%
29°C
21%
30°C
38%
31°C
2%
32°C
17%
33°C or higher
59%
23°C or below 59%
33°C or higher 59%
28°C 44%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
59%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C
$5 Vol.
29%
28°C
$27 Vol.
37%
29°C
$0 Vol.
21%
30°C
$0 Vol.
38%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
17%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-derived guidance, indicate Karachi's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely settle near 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 42.5% implied probability. Persistent westerly sea breezes off the Arabian Sea, combined with high boundary-layer humidity and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, are suppressing typical post-monsoon drops. Historical September minima average 26–27°C, but recent model runs show slightly warmer conditions persisting into mid-month with only trace precipitation possible. Traders appear to weigh the risk of brief cooling episodes or model revisions that could push readings to 23°C or below, reflected in that option's 29.5% share, while awaiting updated Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance or the next ensemble runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-derived guidance, indicate Karachi's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely settle near 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 42.5% implied probability. Persistent westerly sea breezes off the Arabian Sea, combined with high boundary-layer humidity and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, are suppressing typical post-monsoon drops. Historical September minima average 26–27°C, but recent model runs show slightly warmer conditions persisting into mid-month with only trace precipitation possible. Traders appear to weigh the risk of brief cooling episodes or model revisions that could push readings to 23°C or below, reflected in that option's 29.5% share, while awaiting updated Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance or the next ensemble runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS-derived guidance, indicate Karachi's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely settle near 27–28°C, aligning with the market's leading 28°C outcome at 42.5% implied probability. Persistent westerly sea breezes off the Arabian Sea, combined with high boundary-layer humidity and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, are suppressing typical post-monsoon drops. Historical September minima average 26–27°C, but recent model runs show slightly warmer conditions persisting into mid-month with only trace precipitation possible. Traders appear to weigh the risk of brief cooling episodes or model revisions that could push readings to 23°C or below, reflected in that option's 29.5% share, while awaiting updated Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance or the next ensemble runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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