Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai’s maximum temperature on August 20 near 30–31 °C, with ensemble models showing modest spread driven by uncertain cloud cover and scattered shower timing. Subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture are expected to limit strong daytime heating while increasing humidity and the chance of convective clouds that cap afternoon peaks. Small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset can easily swing the observed high by 1 °C, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes. Historical late-August climatology shows daily maxima averaging near 31 °C, but short-range model runs will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
30°C 36%
31°C 34%
32°C 14%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
36%
31°C
34%
32°C
14%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 36%
31°C 34%
32°C 14%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
$280 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$183 Vol.
1%
28°C
$91 Vol.
4%
29°C
$142 Vol.
12%
30°C
$363 Vol.
36%
31°C
$94 Vol.
34%
32°C
$98 Vol.
14%
33°C
$39 Vol.
2%
34°C
$18 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai’s maximum temperature on August 20 near 30–31 °C, with ensemble models showing modest spread driven by uncertain cloud cover and scattered shower timing. Subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture are expected to limit strong daytime heating while increasing humidity and the chance of convective clouds that cap afternoon peaks. Small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset can easily swing the observed high by 1 °C, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes. Historical late-August climatology shows daily maxima averaging near 31 °C, but short-range model runs will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,465End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai’s maximum temperature on August 20 near 30–31 °C, with ensemble models showing modest spread driven by uncertain cloud cover and scattered shower timing. Subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture are expected to limit strong daytime heating while increasing humidity and the chance of convective clouds that cap afternoon peaks. Small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset can easily swing the observed high by 1 °C, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes. Historical late-August climatology shows daily maxima averaging near 31 °C, but short-range model runs will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,465End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies place Shanghai’s maximum temperature on August 20 near 30–31 °C, with ensemble models showing modest spread driven by uncertain cloud cover and scattered shower timing. Subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture are expected to limit strong daytime heating while increasing humidity and the chance of convective clouds that cap afternoon peaks. Small shifts in steering flow or precipitation onset can easily swing the observed high by 1 °C, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes. Historical late-August climatology shows daily maxima averaging near 31 °C, but short-range model runs will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions