Super Typhoon Dolphin currently maintains Category 5-equivalent intensity with sustained winds near 145–160 mph over the open western Pacific near 20°N 158°E, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center observations. Official forecast models show the system tracking west-northwest while encountering increasing wind shear and cooler waters, leading to rapid weakening to Category 2 or 1 strength by early next week. This trajectory places any potential approach to the Ogasawara Islands or Japanese mainland around August 6 at substantially reduced intensity well below Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent model consensus and historical analogs during strong El Niño conditions support limited intensification potential near land, aligning with the 90% market-implied probability against a high-end landfall.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于超级台风海豚会以4级或更高的强度登陆吗？
超级台风海豚会以4级或更高的强度登陆吗？
是
最新
最新
2026-08-16
是
最新
最新
2026-08-16
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin currently maintains Category 5-equivalent intensity with sustained winds near 145–160 mph over the open western Pacific near 20°N 158°E, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center observations. Official forecast models show the system tracking west-northwest while encountering increasing wind shear and cooler waters, leading to rapid weakening to Category 2 or 1 strength by early next week. This trajectory places any potential approach to the Ogasawara Islands or Japanese mainland around August 6 at substantially reduced intensity well below Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent model consensus and historical analogs during strong El Niño conditions support limited intensification potential near land, aligning with the 90% market-implied probability against a high-end landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$25市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin currently maintains Category 5-equivalent intensity with sustained winds near 145–160 mph over the open western Pacific near 20°N 158°E, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center observations. Official forecast models show the system tracking west-northwest while encountering increasing wind shear and cooler waters, leading to rapid weakening to Category 2 or 1 strength by early next week. This trajectory places any potential approach to the Ogasawara Islands or Japanese mainland around August 6 at substantially reduced intensity well below Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent model consensus and historical analogs during strong El Niño conditions support limited intensification potential near land, aligning with the 90% market-implied probability against a high-end landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
交易量
$25结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Super Typhoon Dolphin currently maintains Category 5-equivalent intensity with sustained winds near 145–160 mph over the open western Pacific near 20°N 158°E, according to Joint Typhoon Warning Center observations. Official forecast models show the system tracking west-northwest while encountering increasing wind shear and cooler waters, leading to rapid weakening to Category 2 or 1 strength by early next week. This trajectory places any potential approach to the Ogasawara Islands or Japanese mainland around August 6 at substantially reduced intensity well below Category 4 thresholds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Recent model consensus and historical analogs during strong El Niño conditions support limited intensification potential near land, aligning with the 90% market-implied probability against a high-end landfall.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题