Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18, 2026, place D4 exceptional drought in limited portions of western Nebraska, Colorado, northeastern Oregon, and far southern Idaho amid expanding D2–D3 conditions across the Northern Plains and Northwest. Persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits have driven rapid soil-moisture losses and vegetation stress in these regions, while episodic rainfall has produced localized improvements elsewhere. With the August 25 map imminent, short-term forecast uncertainty around convective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and model divergence creates tight market-implied probabilities across bins; even modest rainfall shifts could push D4 coverage above or below the 0.05% state threshold in multiple areas, explaining the closely matched trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
3-4 states 44%
1-2 states 43%
7-9 states 42%
0 states 41%
最新
最新
2026-08-27
0 states
41%
1-2 states
43%
3-4 states
44%
5-6 states
40%
7-9 states
42%
10 or more states
41%
3-4 states 44%
1-2 states 43%
7-9 states 42%
0 states 41%
最新
最新
2026-08-27
0 states
$0 交易量
41%
1-2 states
$0 交易量
43%
3-4 states
$0 交易量
44%
5-6 states
$0 交易量
40%
7-9 states
$0 交易量
42%
10 or more states
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18, 2026, place D4 exceptional drought in limited portions of western Nebraska, Colorado, northeastern Oregon, and far southern Idaho amid expanding D2–D3 conditions across the Northern Plains and Northwest. Persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits have driven rapid soil-moisture losses and vegetation stress in these regions, while episodic rainfall has produced localized improvements elsewhere. With the August 25 map imminent, short-term forecast uncertainty around convective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and model divergence creates tight market-implied probabilities across bins; even modest rainfall shifts could push D4 coverage above or below the 0.05% state threshold in multiple areas, explaining the closely matched trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-27市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18, 2026, place D4 exceptional drought in limited portions of western Nebraska, Colorado, northeastern Oregon, and far southern Idaho amid expanding D2–D3 conditions across the Northern Plains and Northwest. Persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits have driven rapid soil-moisture losses and vegetation stress in these regions, while episodic rainfall has produced localized improvements elsewhere. With the August 25 map imminent, short-term forecast uncertainty around convective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and model divergence creates tight market-implied probabilities across bins; even modest rainfall shifts could push D4 coverage above or below the 0.05% state threshold in multiple areas, explaining the closely matched trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-27市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETRecent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 18, 2026, place D4 exceptional drought in limited portions of western Nebraska, Colorado, northeastern Oregon, and far southern Idaho amid expanding D2–D3 conditions across the Northern Plains and Northwest. Persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits have driven rapid soil-moisture losses and vegetation stress in these regions, while episodic rainfall has produced localized improvements elsewhere. With the August 25 map imminent, short-term forecast uncertainty around convective precipitation, evapotranspiration, and model divergence creates tight market-implied probabilities across bins; even modest rainfall shifts could push D4 coverage above or below the 0.05% state threshold in multiple areas, explaining the closely matched trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题