The Democratic nominee, longtime incumbent Marcy Kaptur, benefits from high name recognition and established voter support in northwest Ohio's Toledo-based district, which underpins the 73.5% implied probability for a Democratic hold. Mid-decade redistricting made the seat more favorable to Republicans, aligning it closer to the 2024 presidential results where the GOP nominee carried the area by double digits, and the Republican nominee Derek Merrin—who nearly won in 2024—secured his party's nomination in the May primary. Recent August polls reflect a tight contest with margins under 10 points, highlighting how turnout among suburban and working-class voters, along with national midterm dynamics, could still shift outcomes before November. Trader positioning appears to weigh Kaptur's incumbency and fundraising edge against the altered map.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$27,465 交易量
$27,465 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
74%
共和党
27%
$27,465 交易量
$27,465 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$3,383 交易量
74%
共和党
$24,082 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, longtime incumbent Marcy Kaptur, benefits from high name recognition and established voter support in northwest Ohio's Toledo-based district, which underpins the 73.5% implied probability for a Democratic hold. Mid-decade redistricting made the seat more favorable to Republicans, aligning it closer to the 2024 presidential results where the GOP nominee carried the area by double digits, and the Republican nominee Derek Merrin—who nearly won in 2024—secured his party's nomination in the May primary. Recent August polls reflect a tight contest with margins under 10 points, highlighting how turnout among suburban and working-class voters, along with national midterm dynamics, could still shift outcomes before November. Trader positioning appears to weigh Kaptur's incumbency and fundraising edge against the altered map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$27,465结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, longtime incumbent Marcy Kaptur, benefits from high name recognition and established voter support in northwest Ohio's Toledo-based district, which underpins the 73.5% implied probability for a Democratic hold. Mid-decade redistricting made the seat more favorable to Republicans, aligning it closer to the 2024 presidential results where the GOP nominee carried the area by double digits, and the Republican nominee Derek Merrin—who nearly won in 2024—secured his party's nomination in the May primary. Recent August polls reflect a tight contest with margins under 10 points, highlighting how turnout among suburban and working-class voters, along with national midterm dynamics, could still shift outcomes before November. Trader positioning appears to weigh Kaptur's incumbency and fundraising edge against the altered map.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$27,465结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee, longtime incumbent Marcy Kaptur, benefits from high name recognition and established voter support in northwest Ohio's Toledo-based district, which underpins the 73.5% implied probability for a Democratic hold. Mid-decade redistricting made the seat more favorable to Republicans, aligning it closer to the 2024 presidential results where the GOP nominee carried the area by double digits, and the Republican nominee Derek Merrin—who nearly won in 2024—secured his party's nomination in the May primary. Recent August polls reflect a tight contest with margins under 10 points, highlighting how turnout among suburban and working-class voters, along with national midterm dynamics, could still shift outcomes before November. Trader positioning appears to weigh Kaptur's incumbency and fundraising edge against the altered map.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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