Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models, including GFS runs, indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum between 23–24°C under northeast winds of 10–15 mph and variable cloud cover. These conditions, with afternoon temperatures stabilizing near 23–24°C in real-time observations, underpin the tight market split between those two outcomes. Cooler marine air and limited solar heating have prevented stronger warming, while the absence of significant frontal systems or subsidence keeps probabilities for 25°C or higher below 5%. Updated model consensus ahead of peak heating hours will clarify whether slight model spread resolves toward 23°C or allows a brief spike to 24°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
9月18日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
23°C 53%
24°C 40%
25°C 4%
26°C <1%
$13,993 交易量
$13,993 交易量
2026-09-18
20°C或以下
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
53%
24°C
40%
25°C
4%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C或以上
<1%
23°C 53%
24°C 40%
25°C 4%
26°C <1%
$13,993 交易量
$13,993 交易量
2026-09-18
20°C或以下
$108 交易量
<1%
21°C
$1,015 交易量
<1%
22°C
$1,605 交易量
<1%
23°C
$3,164 交易量
53%
24°C
$3,315 交易量
40%
25°C
$1,245 交易量
4%
26°C
$383 交易量
1%
27°C
$314 交易量
<1%
28°C
$127 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,425 交易量
<1%
30°C或以上
$1,430 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models, including GFS runs, indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum between 23–24°C under northeast winds of 10–15 mph and variable cloud cover. These conditions, with afternoon temperatures stabilizing near 23–24°C in real-time observations, underpin the tight market split between those two outcomes. Cooler marine air and limited solar heating have prevented stronger warming, while the absence of significant frontal systems or subsidence keeps probabilities for 25°C or higher below 5%. Updated model consensus ahead of peak heating hours will clarify whether slight model spread resolves toward 23°C or allows a brief spike to 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$13,993结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models, including GFS runs, indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum between 23–24°C under northeast winds of 10–15 mph and variable cloud cover. These conditions, with afternoon temperatures stabilizing near 23–24°C in real-time observations, underpin the tight market split between those two outcomes. Cooler marine air and limited solar heating have prevented stronger warming, while the absence of significant frontal systems or subsidence keeps probabilities for 25°C or higher below 5%. Updated model consensus ahead of peak heating hours will clarify whether slight model spread resolves toward 23°C or allows a brief spike to 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,993结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple meteorological models, including GFS runs, indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum between 23–24°C under northeast winds of 10–15 mph and variable cloud cover. These conditions, with afternoon temperatures stabilizing near 23–24°C in real-time observations, underpin the tight market split between those two outcomes. Cooler marine air and limited solar heating have prevented stronger warming, while the absence of significant frontal systems or subsidence keeps probabilities for 25°C or higher below 5%. Updated model consensus ahead of peak heating hours will clarify whether slight model spread resolves toward 23°C or allows a brief spike to 24°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题