Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月20日马尼拉的最高温度？
9月20日马尼拉的最高温度？
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 35%
35°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
9%
30°C
12%
31°C
14%
32°C
37%
33°C
37%
34°C
35%
35°C
21%
36°C
16%
37°C
4%
38°C或以上
<1%
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 35%
35°C 21%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
28°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
29°C
$0 交易量
9%
30°C
$2 交易量
12%
31°C
$0 交易量
14%
32°C
$0 交易量
37%
33°C
$0 交易量
37%
34°C
$0 交易量
35%
35°C
$0 交易量
21%
36°C
$0 交易量
16%
37°C
$0 交易量
4%
38°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$2结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETRecent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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