Friedrich Merz’s CDU-SPD coalition has maintained its Bundestag majority despite approval ratings near historic lows and repeated delays on tax, pension, and labor reforms. A July 2026 cabinet reshuffle triggered internal CDU friction, yet no formal no-confidence motion or coalition partner withdrawal has materialized. Traders price an 82.5 percent chance Merz remains in office through 2026 because early removal would require either a party revolt before the September state elections or an unexpected collapse of the current governing arrangement—both viewed as low-probability events given the absence of viable alternative coalitions and the constitutional hurdles to replacing a sitting chancellor mid-term.