**Recent polling shows a competitive Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag race on 20 September 2026, with AfD leading at around 35–36% and SPD at 28–29%, followed by Die Linke, CDU, and smaller parties near the threshold.** This polarization, combined with AfD momentum across eastern states, has driven countermobilization efforts and media attention that typically lift participation. Historical turnout reached 70.8% in 2021; recent 2026 state elections elsewhere recorded notable increases (e.g., +5.8 pp in Baden-Württemberg), setting a precedent traders appear to weigh. State officials have emphasized information campaigns and expanded postal voting to boost engagement ahead of the vote. With roughly six weeks remaining and no major disruptions reported, the combination of high-stakes party competition, established turnout trends in comparable contests, and institutional outreach supports the current market-implied probability favoring higher participation than the prior election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于上升
56% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
上升
56% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).**Recent polling shows a competitive Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag race on 20 September 2026, with AfD leading at around 35–36% and SPD at 28–29%, followed by Die Linke, CDU, and smaller parties near the threshold.** This polarization, combined with AfD momentum across eastern states, has driven countermobilization efforts and media attention that typically lift participation. Historical turnout reached 70.8% in 2021; recent 2026 state elections elsewhere recorded notable increases (e.g., +5.8 pp in Baden-Württemberg), setting a precedent traders appear to weigh.
State officials have emphasized information campaigns and expanded postal voting to boost engagement ahead of the vote. With roughly six weeks remaining and no major disruptions reported, the combination of high-stakes party competition, established turnout trends in comparable contests, and institutional outreach supports the current market-implied probability favoring higher participation than the prior election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
市场开放时间： Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
交易量
$89结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).**Recent polling shows a competitive Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag race on 20 September 2026, with AfD leading at around 35–36% and SPD at 28–29%, followed by Die Linke, CDU, and smaller parties near the threshold.** This polarization, combined with AfD momentum across eastern states, has driven countermobilization efforts and media attention that typically lift participation. Historical turnout reached 70.8% in 2021; recent 2026 state elections elsewhere recorded notable increases (e.g., +5.8 pp in Baden-Württemberg), setting a precedent traders appear to weigh.
State officials have emphasized information campaigns and expanded postal voting to boost engagement ahead of the vote. With roughly six weeks remaining and no major disruptions reported, the combination of high-stakes party competition, established turnout trends in comparable contests, and institutional outreach supports the current market-implied probability favoring higher participation than the prior election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
交易量
$89结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling shows a competitive Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag race on 20 September 2026, with AfD leading at around 35–36% and SPD at 28–29%, followed by Die Linke, CDU, and smaller parties near the threshold.** This polarization, combined with AfD momentum across eastern states, has driven countermobilization efforts and media attention that typically lift participation. Historical turnout reached 70.8% in 2021; recent 2026 state elections elsewhere recorded notable increases (e.g., +5.8 pp in Baden-Württemberg), setting a precedent traders appear to weigh. State officials have emphasized information campaigns and expanded postal voting to boost engagement ahead of the vote. With roughly six weeks remaining and no major disruptions reported, the combination of high-stakes party competition, established turnout trends in comparable contests, and institutional outreach supports the current market-implied probability favoring higher participation than the prior election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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