Recent Australian federal polling shows a fragmented primary vote landscape, with Labor, One Nation, and the Coalition each drawing support in the mid-to-high 20s percent range and the Greens near 14 percent, creating multiple plausible paths to government formation under preferential voting. This volatility, combined with preference flow uncertainties and the potential for a hung parliament, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered across several candidates. Anthony Albanese retains an edge in preferred prime minister measures, yet his government's standing remains sensitive to cost-of-living pressures and minor-party momentum. Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson trail in head-to-head tests, while upcoming state by-elections and any shifts in Coalition or One Nation positioning could alter the balance ahead of the election due between August 2027 and May 2028.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthony Albanese 40%
Angus Taylor 20%
Pauline Hanson 16%
吉姆·查尔默斯 6.0%
$16,759 交易量
$16,759 交易量
2028-09-23
Anthony Albanese
40%
Angus Taylor
20%
Pauline Hanson
16%
吉姆·查尔默斯
6%
Robbie Katter
1%
Larissa Waters
1%
Anthony Albanese 40%
Angus Taylor 20%
Pauline Hanson 16%
吉姆·查尔默斯 6.0%
$16,759 交易量
$16,759 交易量
2028-09-23
Anthony Albanese
$1,568 交易量
40%
Angus Taylor
$2,059 交易量
20%
Pauline Hanson
$11,433 交易量
16%
吉姆·查尔默斯
$820 交易量
6%
Robbie Katter
$391 交易量
1%
Larissa Waters
$487 交易量
1%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Australian federal polling shows a fragmented primary vote landscape, with Labor, One Nation, and the Coalition each drawing support in the mid-to-high 20s percent range and the Greens near 14 percent, creating multiple plausible paths to government formation under preferential voting. This volatility, combined with preference flow uncertainties and the potential for a hung parliament, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered across several candidates. Anthony Albanese retains an edge in preferred prime minister measures, yet his government's standing remains sensitive to cost-of-living pressures and minor-party momentum. Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson trail in head-to-head tests, while upcoming state by-elections and any shifts in Coalition or One Nation positioning could alter the balance ahead of the election due between August 2027 and May 2028.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
交易量
$16,759结束日期
2028-09-23市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ETLegislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Australian federal polling shows a fragmented primary vote landscape, with Labor, One Nation, and the Coalition each drawing support in the mid-to-high 20s percent range and the Greens near 14 percent, creating multiple plausible paths to government formation under preferential voting. This volatility, combined with preference flow uncertainties and the potential for a hung parliament, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered across several candidates. Anthony Albanese retains an edge in preferred prime minister measures, yet his government's standing remains sensitive to cost-of-living pressures and minor-party momentum. Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson trail in head-to-head tests, while upcoming state by-elections and any shifts in Coalition or One Nation positioning could alter the balance ahead of the election due between August 2027 and May 2028.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$16,759结束日期
2028-09-23市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ETRecent Australian federal polling shows a fragmented primary vote landscape, with Labor, One Nation, and the Coalition each drawing support in the mid-to-high 20s percent range and the Greens near 14 percent, creating multiple plausible paths to government formation under preferential voting. This volatility, combined with preference flow uncertainties and the potential for a hung parliament, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered across several candidates. Anthony Albanese retains an edge in preferred prime minister measures, yet his government's standing remains sensitive to cost-of-living pressures and minor-party momentum. Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson trail in head-to-head tests, while upcoming state by-elections and any shifts in Coalition or One Nation positioning could alter the balance ahead of the election due between August 2027 and May 2028.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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