Recent Coalition tensions and Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation have established a precedent for sitting federal lower-house members crossing to the party, sustaining trader focus on further realignments through year-end. Weak Nationals primary performance in the May 2026 Farrer by-election, alongside public comments by Nationals MP Colin Boyce weighing a potential switch that month, have highlighted internal conservative fragmentation. One Nation's post-2025 federal election polling gains, membership growth, and state-level candidate recruitment have reinforced perceptions of its appeal as a destination amid these dynamics. No additional federal House switches have occurred in 2026, yet the 74% implied probability for at least one more by December 31 reflects trader assessment of ongoing risks from leadership disputes or by-elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于另一位现任澳大利亚国会议员是否会在2026年加入One Nation ？
另一位现任澳大利亚国会议员是否会在2026年加入One Nation ？
是
60% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
60% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Coalition tensions and Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation have established a precedent for sitting federal lower-house members crossing to the party, sustaining trader focus on further realignments through year-end. Weak Nationals primary performance in the May 2026 Farrer by-election, alongside public comments by Nationals MP Colin Boyce weighing a potential switch that month, have highlighted internal conservative fragmentation. One Nation's post-2025 federal election polling gains, membership growth, and state-level candidate recruitment have reinforced perceptions of its appeal as a destination amid these dynamics. No additional federal House switches have occurred in 2026, yet the 74% implied probability for at least one more by December 31 reflects trader assessment of ongoing risks from leadership disputes or by-elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
交易量
$172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Coalition tensions and Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation have established a precedent for sitting federal lower-house members crossing to the party, sustaining trader focus on further realignments through year-end. Weak Nationals primary performance in the May 2026 Farrer by-election, alongside public comments by Nationals MP Colin Boyce weighing a potential switch that month, have highlighted internal conservative fragmentation. One Nation's post-2025 federal election polling gains, membership growth, and state-level candidate recruitment have reinforced perceptions of its appeal as a destination amid these dynamics. No additional federal House switches have occurred in 2026, yet the 74% implied probability for at least one more by December 31 reflects trader assessment of ongoing risks from leadership disputes or by-elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Coalition tensions and Barnaby Joyce's December 2025 defection from the Nationals to One Nation have established a precedent for sitting federal lower-house members crossing to the party, sustaining trader focus on further realignments through year-end. Weak Nationals primary performance in the May 2026 Farrer by-election, alongside public comments by Nationals MP Colin Boyce weighing a potential switch that month, have highlighted internal conservative fragmentation. One Nation's post-2025 federal election polling gains, membership growth, and state-level candidate recruitment have reinforced perceptions of its appeal as a destination amid these dynamics. No additional federal House switches have occurred in 2026, yet the 74% implied probability for at least one more by December 31 reflects trader assessment of ongoing risks from leadership disputes or by-elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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