Ukraine's ongoing martial law, extended repeatedly by parliament into late 2026, constitutionally bars presidential elections and has kept Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office beyond his original 2024 term. Recent 90-day renewals through October 2026 and Zelenskyy's public statements prioritizing a ceasefire before any vote reinforce continuity. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5 percent because no scheduled election or leadership transition falls inside the resolution window, and the war's persistence maintains these legal and security barriers. While Zelenskyy has signaled openness to stepping aside after hostilities end, absent a rapid de-escalation or constitutional shift, the current framework points to his continued tenure through year-end.